Raymond James has opened coverage of Venture Global (NYSE: VG) with an Outperform rating and a price target of $11.00, which the firm says represents roughly a 12% upside relative to the stock's current price of $9.80. The broker characterized Venture Global as an "interesting equity opportunity," citing the company's role as a leading U.S. provider of liquefied natural gas and its distinctive approach to project development and construction.
The firm pointed to Venture Global's recent top-line expansion as a central part of its thesis. The company reported revenue growth of 113.5% to $10.85 billion over the last twelve months, a figure Raymond James uses to underline the business's rapid expansion as a supplier to global gas markets.
Raymond James emphasized Venture Global's "scalable and repeatable approach," arguing that the company's development and construction methods enable LNG delivery on timelines shorter than global industry averages. The firm believes that those operating efficiencies and a growing contract portfolio should support the company as global gas demand increases over the coming decades.
At the same time, third-party InvestingPro data suggests the stock is slightly overvalued when measured against Fair Value estimates. InvestingPro also highlights ongoing challenges, including Venture Global's substantial debt load and an elevated cash burn rate. The company remains profitable on reported metrics, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4, according to the same data set.
Raymond James acknowledged several potential downsides but indicated that certain risks may already be reflected in the stock price. The firm specifically cited "LNG macro risk" and "arbitration risks" as headwinds it expects the market to have priced in. Despite near-term commodity volatility, Raymond James expects that operational improvements and demand fundamentals will allow the business to remain resilient.
Recent corporate developments provide additional context for the firm's outlook. Venture Global agreed to an engineering, procurement, and construction contract with Worley Field Services for Phase 2 of its CP2 LNG project. That contract covers design, engineering, procurement, and construction management services tied to the project's next phase.
At the same time, other sell-side and market developments have presented a mixed picture. JPMorgan recently downgraded Venture Global's stock from Overweight to Neutral, a move the bank attributed to a revised 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Wells Fargo also trimmed its valuation view, lowering its price target for the shares to $8.00 while keeping an Equal Weight rating and pointing to higher operating expenses as a concern.
On legal matters, Venture Global secured a favorable arbitration decision in a dispute with Repsol LNG Holding. The International Chamber of Commerce tribunal affirmed the company's operations and awarded fees to its subsidiary, Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, in connection with a long-term LNG sales and purchase agreement dispute.
Taken together, the analyst initiation, the project contracting activity, the arbitration ruling, and the shifts in analyst guidance present investors with a layered assessment of Venture Global's current financial and operational position. Raymond James' Outperform call rests on the company's rapid revenue growth, repeatable project model, and anticipated benefit from long-term global gas demand, while other market participants draw attention to valuation, cost pressures, and leverage.
Key takeaways
- Raymond James initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and an $11.00 price target, implying roughly 12% upside from $9.80.
- The company posted 113.5% revenue growth to $10.85 billion over the last twelve months and is presented as a fast-growing U.S. LNG supplier with a scalable development approach.
- Third-party data and other analysts point to valuation concerns, elevated operating expenses, significant debt, and a rapid cash burn rate despite profitability and a P/E of 12.4.
Context and outlook
Raymond James expects growing global gas demand over the next several decades to be supportive for Venture Global and says the company is well suited to contribute to supply. The firm also notes that a growing contract portfolio and continued operational optimizations should help the company withstand short-term commodity price swings.
Recent corporate and market developments
- Venture Global signed an EPC contract with Worley Field Services for Phase 2 of the CP2 LNG project covering design, engineering, procurement, and construction management.
- JPMorgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral, citing a revised 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
- Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $8.00 and maintained an Equal Weight rating due to increased operating expenses.
- An ICC tribunal ruled in favor of Venture Global in arbitration with Repsol LNG Holding, affirming operations and awarding fees to Venture Global Calcasieu Pass over a long-term LNG sales and purchase agreement dispute.
Bottom line
Raymond James' initiation frames Venture Global as a high-growth LNG developer with a repeatable delivery model and potential upside in a structurally growing gas market. That view sits alongside cautionary notes from third-party data and other analysts around valuation, leverage, cash consumption, and near-term operating costs.