Piper Sandler has revised down its price target for Roblox Corp. (NYSE: RBLX) to $125.00 from $180.00, while continuing to classify the stock as Overweight. The firm noted a requirement to adopt more conservative assumptions beginning in the second half of 2027 but emphasized it remains a long-term believer in the company.
Roblox is trading at $74.01 and carries an approximate market capitalization of $52 billion, per InvestingPro data cited by analysts. Piper Sandler pointed to recent third-party metrics that indicate weakness attributable to age restrictions as a factor informing the updated modeling. Those same external data align with a broader decline in the stock, which has fallen 37.7% over the past six months according to InvestingPro figures.
Despite the lower target, Piper Sandler's analysis suggests Roblox may still post a modest outperformance on daily active users (DAUs) versus Street expectations. That potential comes after what the firm describes as very strong DAU beats in the second and third quarters of 2025.
On the revenue side, Piper Sandler anticipates fourth-quarter 2025 bookings growth of roughly 55% to 60% year-over-year, implying bookings of about $2.11 billion or higher. For the fourth quarter specifically, the firm projects 140 million daily active users - up 65% year-over-year - bookings near $2.05 billion - up 51% year-over-year - and EBITDA of $544 million.
Looking further out, the firm trimmed its bookings outlook for fiscal year 2027 by 3% and for fiscal year 2028 by 8%, signaling a more cautious stance on medium-term monetization or engagement trajectories.
Brokerage coverage of Roblox shows a range of perspectives. Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating with a $180 price target and highlighted the company's strategic activity in artificial intelligence as a potential future driver. JPMorgan kept a Neutral rating with a $100 target and cited declining platform engagement, noting a fall in peak concurrent users from 26 million to 23 million.
Wolfe Research reported a 10.6% weekly decline in concurrent users and said that first-quarter average users grew more slowly than in the prior quarter. Oppenheimer retained an Outperform rating and a $150 target, observing that Roblox's new age verification system had minimal impact on monetization and engagement. By contrast, Jefferies reduced its price target to $85, pointing to worries about 2026 growth expectations and the potential for investor sentiment to shift.
Taken together, the updates reflect divergent interpretations of Roblox's near-term engagement dynamics, the effect of age verification measures, and how these factors feed into bookings and profitability assumptions. Piper Sandler's move narrows implied upside relative to its previous target while leaving intact a constructive longer-run view.
Summary
Piper Sandler cut its Roblox price target to $125 from $180 but left its Overweight rating in place, citing a need for more conservative estimates from the second half of 2027 despite continued long-term conviction. The firm expects strong near-term bookings and DAU growth but has lowered its fiscal 2027 and 2028 bookings forecasts. Other brokerages offer mixed views, with price targets ranging from $85 to $180 and differing takes on engagement trends and the impact of age verification.