Analyst Ratings January 29, 2026

Oppenheimer Lifts Caterpillar Price Target as Backlog and Orders Strengthen

Analyst keeps Outperform rating after robust Q4 results and broad-based demand gains across construction, mining and oil and gas

By Priya Menon CAT
Oppenheimer Lifts Caterpillar Price Target as Backlog and Orders Strengthen
CAT

Oppenheimer increased its 12-month price objective for Caterpillar to $729 from $700 while retaining an Outperform rating, citing sizable backlog expansion and record order intake in key segments. Caterpillar reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results, including EPS of $5.16 and revenue of $19.1 billion, and the stock rose on the news.

Key Points

  • Oppenheimer raised Caterpillar’s price target to $729 from $700 and kept an Outperform rating.
  • Caterpillar reported $11.3 billion in quarter-over-quarter backlog growth and record order intake in Construction Industries; Resource Industries posted its strongest intake since 2021.
  • Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations with EPS of $5.16 and revenue of $19.1 billion; shares rose 3.4% on the news.

Oppenheimer has raised its price target on Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) to $729.00 from $700.00 and maintained an Outperform rating on the heavy equipment maker, citing accelerating demand and a larger-than-anticipated backlog.

The firm’s revised target implies upside relative to Caterpillar’s prevailing share price of $665.24, with the company carrying a market capitalization in excess of $308 billion.

Shares of Caterpillar closed 3.4% higher on Thursday, outpacing the S&P 500, which declined 0.13% the same day. The move followed the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, which Oppenheimer and others interpreted as evidence of stronger activity across the company’s three principal business segments.

Caterpillar reported quarter-over-quarter backlog growth of $11.3 billion and cited healthy book-to-bill ratios, developments that have underpinned increasing confidence in a capacity inflection the company expects to materialize as 2026 progresses.

In its note, Oppenheimer flagged record order intake within Caterpillar’s Construction Industries segment during the fourth quarter. The Resource Industries division also posted its highest order intake since 2021, with a favorable shift toward original equipment highlighted by the investment firm.

While Oppenheimer emphasized that power generation remains an important component of Caterpillar’s outlook, the firm noted synchronous improvement across construction, mining and oil and gas operations.

Financial results for the quarter were stronger than consensus estimates. Caterpillar reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $5.16, above the forecasted $4.70, and revenue of $19.1 billion, outpacing expectations of $17.85 billion. Analysts reacted positively to the results, with several firms noting the company’s ability to exceed projections.

Additional context on Caterpillar’s industry standing is provided by InvestingPro, which identifies the company as a prominent player in the machinery industry with annual revenue of $64.67 billion. InvestingPro offers a Pro Research Report covering Caterpillar and more than 1,400 other U.S. stocks for users seeking deeper analysis.

Separately, ProPicks AI is described as a tool that evaluates CAT alongside thousands of other companies across more than 100 financial metrics to surface potential investment ideas and strategies; the tool is referenced in relation to investors interested in whether Caterpillar appears in any AI-generated strategies or if alternative opportunities exist in the same sector.


Key takeaways

  • Oppenheimer raised its price target on Caterpillar to $729 from $700 and kept an Outperform rating, reflecting improved demand signals.
  • Caterpillar posted substantial backlog growth of $11.3 billion quarter-over-quarter and recorded notable order intake in Construction Industries and Resource Industries.
  • Q4 2025 results beat expectations with EPS of $5.16 and revenue of $19.1 billion; the company’s performance drove a 3.4% intraday share gain.

Sectors impacted - Machinery, construction, mining, oil and gas, and power generation.


Risks and uncertainties

  • Execution risk in scaling capacity - the company’s outlook depends on a capacity inflection anticipated in 2026, which carries operational execution risk for manufacturing and supply chains.
  • Demand variability across end markets - improvements are described as synchronous across segments, but continued demand shifts in construction, mining or oil and gas could affect results.
  • Reliance on order flow sustaining momentum - future financial performance is linked to continued healthy book-to-bill ratios and order intake remaining elevated.

These risks primarily affect the machinery, construction and resource-extraction markets and could influence related capital expenditure cycles and supplier dynamics.

Risks

  • Execution risk tied to achieving a capacity inflection expected in 2026, affecting manufacturing and supply-chain performance.
  • Potential variability in demand across construction, mining and oil and gas could alter revenue momentum.
  • Future performance depends on sustained order intake and healthy book-to-bill ratios; a slowdown in orders would impact financial outcomes.

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