Needham has issued a constructive assessment for companies that provide sports data after Major League Soccer announced a multi-year partnership with prediction market operator Polymarket.
The research firm emphasized that MLS disclosed the agreement during market hours on Monday and that the arrangement requires Polymarket to use official league data and to engage third-party integrity monitoring. Needham analysts pointed to Sportradar (NASDAQ:SRAD) as the probable provider of those monitoring services, citing the company’s earlier purchase of MLS rights as part of its deal with IMG.
InvestingPro data, referenced in Needham’s note, shows that Sportradar sustained revenue growth of 16.74% over the last twelve months even as its share price has been trading near 52-week lows. Needham called the MLS-Polymarket pact "the most bullish data point for data providers thus far in their ability to benefit from the growth in prediction markets," reflecting the view that formal league arrangements could create a clearer commercial pathway for data vendors.
At the same time, Needham acknowledged investor caution. The firm noted that uncertainty over the precise role data providers will play in prediction markets has weighed on valuations, with both SRAD and Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI) down significantly so far this year. InvestingPro’s price-action analysis shows Sportradar’s stock has dropped 36.37% over the past six months and that technical indicators point to an oversold condition.
Needham warned against over-relying on a single transaction — calling it "one deal with a relatively small league" — yet said the structure of the agreement makes strategic sense for leagues and could be a blueprint for additional deals going forward. The research firm suggested that, under those conditions, data suppliers that are correctly positioned could see incremental commercial opportunities as prediction markets expand.
On valuation metrics, InvestingPro’s fair value work positions Sportradar as appearing slightly undervalued and trading at a favorable price-to-earnings ratio relative to its near-term earnings growth. Needham indicated that these factors leave Sportradar potentially well placed to benefit should similar partnerships materialize. InvestingPro also offers a longer Pro Research Report that includes 12 additional points on Sportradar’s financial health and growth outlook.
Separate analyst activity around Sportradar has underscored divergent price targets but consistent positive stances. Guggenheim raised its price target for Sportradar to $35.00 and kept a Buy rating, citing the company’s positioning in the sports technology platform segment. Stifel began coverage with a Buy recommendation and set a $28.00 target, emphasizing recurring revenue streams and low risk elements. Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating with a $30.00 target, pointing to execution and cost control as drivers of notable AEBITDA growth and margin expansion.
Citizens also maintained a Market Outperform rating and set a $36.00 price target, noting these views despite regulatory developments in the prediction market arena. That firm referenced the launch of Underdog’s prediction market product, which has expanded across 24 states. Together, these analyst notes present a range of valuations but a generally favorable consensus toward Sportradar, with several firms assigning Buy-oriented recommendations and varying price targets.
Sector and market implications
- Sports data and integrity services - the MLS-Polymarket agreement highlights the commercial role of official league data and third-party monitoring in prediction markets.
- Equities of data providers - investor uncertainty has pressured share prices of SRAD and GENI, even as some firms maintain positive ratings.
- Prediction markets - the structure of the MLS deal is viewed as a potential model that could influence future partner arrangements between leagues and prediction platforms.
Research and valuation notes
Needham’s commentary and InvestingPro analysis together point to a mixed picture: growth in underlying revenues for Sportradar, a recent stock price decline with technical oversold signals, and analyst coverage that largely favors the company while assigning differing price targets. The firms referenced emphasize recurring revenues, low-risk aspects, and margin improvements as supportive factors.