Analyst Ratings January 29, 2026

Morgan Stanley Sticks With Overweight on Nvidia, Keeps $250 Target

Analyst says AI sector checks support bullish view amid valuation and supply-chain headwinds

By Maya Rios NVDA
Morgan Stanley Sticks With Overweight on Nvidia, Keeps $250 Target
NVDA

Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed an Overweight rating and $250 price target on Nvidia, citing stronger-than-expected market checks across the artificial intelligence ecosystem. The firm argues concerns about market-share losses are exaggerated and sees the company positioned to outperform as it addresses financing questions around frontier model developers and continues work on new platforms and partnerships.

Key Points

  • Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight rating and $250 price target for Nvidia, citing strong AI market checks.
  • Nvidia trades at a P/E of 47.44 and a PEG of 0.77, with analysts forecasting 63% revenue growth.
  • Company developments include upcoming Feb. 25 results, new open-source weather models, a deeper CoreWeave partnership (5GW build-out and $2B equity), and progress on H200 licensing in China.

Morgan Stanley has reiterated its Overweight rating on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and retained a $250.00 price target, pointing to strengthening market checks within the artificial intelligence sector as the basis for its call. The firm highlighted the chipmaker s a major player in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry and noted its current market value of $4.65 trillion.

In its assessment, Morgan Stanley acknowledged that strong near-term financial results have become the consensus expectation, but it also noted that Nvidiaquity performance has not fully reflected the widening set of beneficiaries from AI and the broad component shortages affecting supply chains across the industry.

The brokerage pointed to valuation metrics that present a mixed picture: Nvidia is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.44, but its price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio sits at 0.77, which Morgan Stanley interprets as a relatively low P/E given the expected growth profile. Analysts covered in the firmstimate a 63% revenue growth rate for the company.

Morgan Stanley characterized investor concerns about potential market share erosion as "overblown," and said the forthcoming Vera Rubin platform should help illustrate Nvidia ontinued leadership in AI. At the same time, the firm acknowledged a separate area of investor uncertainty related to how frontier model developers are financed and Nvidia roader role in that ecosystem, noting this point "requires some adjustment." Overall, the firm concluded that Nvidia stock should outperform as the company addresses these issues while operating in what it called "a very robust AI environment."


Outside of the analyst note, Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2026 results on February 25, with a conference call planned to discuss the outcomes. The company also unveiled three open-source AI models aimed at improving weather forecasting at the American Meteorological Society nnual meeting.

Nvidia EO Jensen Huang has signaled optimism about securing a license to sell the H200 AI chip in China, a market the company considers significant. The note from Morgan Stanley reiterated the importance of ongoing product and market developments to reinforce leadership claims.

The company has also expanded its collaboration with CoreWeave, a move that prompted Mizuho to raise its price target for CoreWeave to $100. That partnership includes an enlarged build-out of 5GW of capacity and an additional $2 billion equity investment from Nvidia.

On the competitive front, Microsoft launched the Maia 200 AI chip aimed at inference workloads and optimizing token generation. According to the coverage cited by Morgan Stanley, that introduction left Nvidiaquity relatively unchanged.


Given these points, Morgan Stanley ontinues to view Nvidia as well positioned within the AI-driven demand cycle, while flagging specific investor concerns that the firm believes will be resolved as the company advances its platforms, partnerships, and market access initiatives.

Risks

  • Supply-chain and component shortages continue to affect the semiconductor industry and could pressure near-term performance - impacts the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment sector.
  • Investor concerns about the financing of frontier model developers and Nvidia roader role in that ecosystem require adjustment and could create execution risk - impacts AI infrastructure and cloud services sectors.
  • Potential regulatory or licensing delays for selling H200 in China could impede market access in a key region - impacts international sales and geopolitical exposure.

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