Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed an Overweight rating on NIO (NYSE:NIO) and kept a $7.00 price target after comments from the company's founder outlining an ambitious growth trajectory. The $7.00 target implies roughly a 52% increase from NIO's current trading level of $4.61, and aligns with data indicating the stock is trading below its calculated fair value according to InvestingPro.
The firm’s stance was influenced by NIO's internal projections that deliveries can expand at a 40-50% compound annual growth rate over the next two years. Management translates that range into an expected 456,000 to 489,000 vehicle deliveries by 2026. Those targets far outpace the automaker’s recent top-line trend, which shows revenue growth of 14.9% over the last twelve months.
Planned model introductions are central to the forecasted expansion. The company highlighted three models - the ES9, ES7, and the Onvo L80 - as primary contributors to volume growth. Among these, the ES9 is singled out as a margin-enhancing asset: NIO projects the ES9 could deliver more than 100,000 yuan of profit per unit, a material step toward raising company-wide profitability.
The margin dynamic is pressing. InvestingPro data cited in the company note shows NIO's gross profit margin at just 11.27%, a level the automaker intends to improve via higher-margin models and a premium average selling price. The ES9 is positioned with an average selling price above 500,000 yuan and is described as competitive with premium models such as the BMW X5, Mercedes GLE, and AITO M9.
On product segmentation, NIO plans to broaden its lineup across price points. Long-term plans call for introducing two to three Onvo models in the 150,000 to 200,000 yuan bracket, where the company aims to capture an 8-10% market share in that segment. For buyers below 150,000 yuan, NIO intends to leverage its battery-as-a-service subscription offering as a means to reach more price-sensitive consumers.
Beyond vehicle hardware and price positioning, NIO is pursuing technology avenues tied to autonomous driving. The company is emphasizing its in-house World Model, a reinforcement learning approach, and its proprietary Shenji chips as pillars to reclaim leadership in China’s autonomous stack. Management has indicated it may seek to monetize its autonomous driving software in the future and could explore selling its chips externally.
While these strategic moves underpin the positive rating from Morgan Stanley, analysts and data providers note significant financial pressures. InvestingPro flags that NIO is burning through cash quickly, a constraint that could complicate execution of the expansion plan if not addressed.
Recent operational updates add nuance. NIO delivered 36,275 vehicles in November, a 10% decline versus October, though year-to-date deliveries are up 45.6% compared with the prior year. Broker reactions have been mixed: Macquarie initially upgraded NIO to Outperform on strength in fourth-quarter sales at the high end of its guidance, attributed to demand for the ES8 and Firefly, but later downgraded the name to Neutral citing weaker fourth-quarter volume guidance influenced by government subsidy phase-outs that affected the Onvo model.
Other broker activity included US Tiger Securities maintaining a Buy rating, pointing to a solid third-quarter showing with margin recovery and improved operating efficiency. BofA Securities adjusted its price target to $6.70 while keeping a Neutral rating after lowering its 2025 sales volume forecast and modestly increasing its 2026 estimate. Collectively, these updates portray a company with both near-term headwinds and longer-term upside tied to new products and software ambitions.
The investment case rests on execution: achieving the delivery growth implied by the founder's guidance, extracting significant per-unit profit from the ES9 and other premium models, scaling lower-priced models without eroding margins, and stemming the current cash burn. Investors and analysts will likely focus on delivery cadence, margin progression, and cash flow metrics as indicators of whether the optimism embedded in the $7.00 target is attainable.
For readers seeking a deeper financial and strategic breakdown, more extensive research is available in the platform’s Pro Research Report on the company.