Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) to $70.00 from $53.00 and retained an Overweight rating on the mining company, citing trade protection that could benefit the firm’s North American copper rod operations. The bank’s revised valuation comes as FCX shares trade at $61.17, roughly 1% below the stock’s 52-week peak of $62.12, after delivering a roughly 62% gain over the past 12 months.
Tariff-driven valuation upside
The upgrade from Morgan Stanley reflects the potential impact of Section 232 copper tariffs, which would shield Freeport-McMoRan’s North American copper rod segment. The company sells about 1 billion pounds of copper annually through that business, a volume central to the bank’s view of how trade policy could lift the firm’s earnings profile. Morgan Stanley also flagged the possibility of further upside tied to a pending Section 232 decision on refined copper expected in the first half of 2026; if implemented, the bank said such measures could enhance its base-case estimates.
Gold outlook and Grasberg operations
Beyond copper, Morgan Stanley noted that Freeport-McMoRan stands to gain from a positive gold outlook as operations resume at the Grasberg mine. The restart at Grasberg contributed to the firm’s expectations for improved production and commodity mix, factors incorporated into the higher target.
Market positioning and valuation
Freeport-McMoRan carries a market capitalization near $88 billion and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.4, a valuation that indicates the market is pricing in substantial growth for the miner. Morgan Stanley’s move to $70 signals what the bank sees as meaningful headroom for the stock under its assumptions about trade policy and operational recovery.
Recent financial performance and analyst reactions
The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results came in ahead of consensus. Freeport-McMoRan reported earnings per share of $0.47 versus an expected $0.28, a surprise of approximately 67.86%. Revenue for the quarter was $5.63 billion, beating forecasts of $5.28 billion by about 6.63%. Those beats occurred as the business continued to recover from disruptions at Grasberg.
Despite the stronger quarter, Bernstein SocGen Group downgraded Freeport-McMoRan from Outperform to Market Perform while modestly raising its own price target to $54.00 from $53.50. The downgrade came even as the company reported restarts at the Big Gossan and DMLZ mines in the fourth quarter and confirmed plans to restart PB2-3 in the second quarter of 2026. Collectively, these operational updates point to ongoing recovery efforts at Grasberg following the external mud rush incident.
In sum, Morgan Stanley’s decision to raise its target hinges on trade protections for copper and improving operational dynamics at Grasberg, while the firm’s valuation thesis sits alongside mixed responses from other analysts who have adjusted ratings and targets in light of recent results.