Analyst Ratings January 30, 2026

Mizuho Trims Royal Caribbean Target to $379 Citing Q1 Caribbean Softness, Keeps Outperform Call

Analyst reduces price objective by $2 while highlighting stronger-than-feared cost and yield trends and accelerated fleet expansion plans

By Caleb Monroe RCL
Mizuho Trims Royal Caribbean Target to $379 Citing Q1 Caribbean Softness, Keeps Outperform Call
RCL

Mizuho lowered its price target on Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) to $379 from $381 but maintained an Outperform rating after the company reported a weak first-quarter performance in the Caribbean that appears contained. The firm noted several constructive signals, including better-than-expected full-year cost and yield guidance, higher EPS guidance than a key benchmark, faster-than-anticipated river ship additions, and healthy implied second-half yields. Other broker actions and company operating metrics point to sustained demand and improving yields across key products.

Key Points

  • Mizuho lowered its Royal Caribbean price target to $379 from $381 but kept an Outperform rating, citing contained first-quarter Caribbean weakness.
  • The firm pointed to better-than-expected full-year costs and yield guidance, and company EPS guidance of $17.70-$18.10, which exceeded a $17.50 benchmark.
  • Operational and market signals - including matched Q4 2025 EPS of $2.80, revenue of $4.26 billion, accelerated river-ship additions, and strong 2026 booking momentum - support demand and yield improvement.

Mizuho Investors reduced its price target on Royal Caribbean Cruises to $379.00 from $381.00 while keeping an Outperform rating on the shares. The stock was trading near $345.98, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.65 at the time of the update.

The adjustment follows signs of softness in the Caribbean during the first quarter, which Mizuho described as limited to that period. Despite that near-term weakness, the bank emphasized that Caribbean yields remained positive overall and that implied yields for the second half of the year looked strong, roughly in the 4% range.

Beyond the modest reduction in the target price, Mizuho underscored a set of favorable developments from Royal Caribbean's latest reports. The firm said full-year cost expectations came in better than feared, and the company’s full-year yield guidance exceeded downside concerns. Even the initial guidance reflected a robust ramp into the second half of the year, supporting the analyst view of improving revenue dynamics later in the fiscal year.

Mizuho also referenced the company’s earnings-per-share guidance of $17.70 to $18.10, which topped a $17.50 benchmark that had been used as a point of comparison. The analyst firm noted that the stronger-than-expected guidance was supported by the lower cost outlook that Mizuho had anticipated ahead of the earnings release. For the trailing twelve months, Royal Caribbean reported diluted EPS of $15.64, while consensus analyst estimates for fiscal 2026 EPS are $15.87.

Fleet growth plans drew attention as another positive element. Royal Caribbean announced it will add 10 river ships by 2031, a pace of growth that Mizuho described as quicker than previously assumed. The company also sits within a wide band of analyst price targets that span from $223 to $420, and Mizuho highlighted a favorable PEG ratio of 0.4.

Operational results released recently add context to the broker commentary. Royal Caribbean reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that matched analyst expectations with EPS of $2.80 and revenue of $4.26 billion. Management has provided forward guidance that the brokerage and market participants characterized as positive, reflecting ongoing demand strength.

Following the company's guidance, other brokerage moves were recorded. Jefferies lifted its price target on the shares to $334 from $275 while keeping a Hold rating; the firm reacted to fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance in a range of $17.80 to $18.10. William Blair maintained an Outperform stance, citing sustained booking momentum into 2026.

Booking and yield trends were also highlighted. About two-thirds of Royal Caribbean’s 2026 sailings are already booked at record rates, with the company reporting its highest booking weeks since the third-quarter results were issued. The cruise line is seeing net yield growth across key products, together with positive trends in Caribbean volume and pricing, supporting the firm’s view of solid market positioning and prospects.


What this means

Mizuho’s small target cut, combined with its maintained Outperform rating, signals that the firm views the first-quarter Caribbean softness as a manageable and limited headwind rather than a structural problem. The bank’s emphasis on cost control, yield recovery into the back half of the year, and accelerated fleet expansion supports a cautiously optimistic stance on the company’s financial trajectory.

Risks

  • Near-term weakness in Caribbean demand - if not contained to Q1, it could pressure leisure and travel revenue streams and cruise industry pricing.
  • Valuation risk - the company is assessed as trading above its Fair Value, which could increase sensitivity to earnings or guidance misses for travel and consumer discretionary markets.

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