Mizuho reduced its price target for Evolus (NASDAQ: EOLS) to $15.00 from $19.00 and kept an Outperform rating on the shares, which were changing hands at about $4.70, close to a 52-week low of $4.56. The stock has fallen roughly 62% over the past year.
The firm's adjustment follows Evolus’s January 9 update, which included a pre-announced fourth-quarter 2025 performance that fell short of some expectations, the company’s first-ever revenue guidance for 2026, and a revised outlook for 2028. Mizuho characterized the January guidance as a potential "clearing event" and suggested the stock has found a level of support roughly around $4.65.
Analyst consensus around Evolus remains tilted toward the buy side. The broader analyst consensus registers at an average rating of 1.43, on a scale where 1 corresponds to Strong Buy, and Mizuho continues to emphasize an overall positive stance despite cutting the price target.
Mizuho highlighted the company’s valuation as a key element supporting its constructive posture. The firm noted that Evolus trades at about 1.3 times enterprise value to Mizuho’s 2026 sales estimate, a metric Mizuho described as compelling in light of the updated guidance.
On product outlook, Mizuho suggested that Evolus’s 2026 guidance for Evolysse in particular could be conservative. The firm pointed to the ongoing rollout of a bundling program and growing familiarity with Evolysse utilization as potential drivers that could push actual results above current guidance.
The company reported preliminary unaudited fourth-quarter 2025 revenue in the range of $88.6 million to $90.6 million, representing year-over-year growth of 12% to 15% versus the same period in 2024. For the full year 2025, Evolus forecast revenue between $295.5 million and $297.5 million, an increase of 11% to 12% from the prior year. Evolus also indicated it achieved positive non-GAAP operating income of $5 million to $7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Other brokerages have revised their targets while maintaining positive ratings. H.C. Wainwright and BTIG both lowered their targets to $13, and Stifel set a new target at $17; each of those firms maintained Buy ratings on the stock. The reporting on analyst actions also includes a separate mention that Mizuho reaffirmed its Outperform rating with a $19 price target in commentary noting early signs of stabilization in the neurotoxin market. The presence of both the $15 and $19 target references reflects the firm’s latest adjustments and accompanying commentary as provided in the company coverage notes.
Evolus is pursuing a path to profitability by 2026, according to the information disclosed as part of the January updates. The combination of preliminary revenue figures, a positive fourth-quarter non-GAAP operating result, and multi-year guidance revisions have prompted brokers to recalibrate valuation and target assumptions while largely preserving bullish ratings.
Contextual takeaway
- The near-term market reaction has placed the shares close to yearly lows despite analyst optimism on valuation metrics and product rollouts.
- Broker commentary highlights the tension between conservative initial guidance and potential upside from product adoption dynamics.