Mizuho has adjusted its valuation for Brown & Brown (NYSE:BRO), lowering its price target to $84.00 from $90.00 while retaining a Neutral rating on the insurance broker. The move accompanies modest reductions in Mizuho's earnings forecasts for the next two years.
The analyst trimmed its earnings-per-share projections for 2026 and 2027 by $0.10 and $0.05, respectively, bringing those estimates to $4.50 and $5.00 per share. According to Mizuho, those revised figures sit roughly 3% and 2% below consensus estimates. Data cited by the analyst shows that four analysts have cut their earnings expectations for the period, although the company itself still carries an EPS forecast of $3.89 for fiscal 2026.
Mizuho identified several near-term revenue challenges shaping its view. The firm pointed to ongoing organic headwinds from property-and-casualty insurance pricing throughout 2026, a 50-basis-point revenue drag tied to teams being recruited away by a competitor that is currently in litigation, and softer flood-claim revenue expected in the first half of 2026. Collectively, these factors are cited as reasons for the trimmed earnings outlook.
The broker's adjusted EBITDAC margins could also face pressure in 2026, Mizuho warned. That pressure is tied to the mix of revenue challenges hitting higher-margin streams, expectations of a less favorable hurricane season in 2027, and the integration of acquisitions that carry lower margins than Brown & Brown’s core business. Mizuho nevertheless projects consolidated organic growth of 3.4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027 for the company.
Mizuho described the new $84 price target as a reflection of a valuation roll-forward and group multiple compression rather than a change in its long-term thesis. The analyst's adjustments are focused on near-term earnings dynamics and margin sensitivity to revenue mix and weather-related outcomes.
Brown & Brown's most recent reported quarter produced mixed results. For the fourth quarter of 2025 the company reported earnings per share of $0.93, beating the $0.91 estimate, while revenue of $1.6 billion missed the $1.65 billion forecast. Those results have prompted other brokerage updates.
Truist Securities lowered its price target on Brown & Brown from $105.00 to $100.00 but maintained a Buy rating. Truist trimmed its 2026 EPS estimate to $4.55 from $4.75, attributing the revision to expected weaker organic growth and modest top-line disruption stemming from personnel losses at Howden. Both the Mizuho and Truist moves underline a period of reassessment as analysts reprice expectations around near-term growth and margin drivers.
Investors and market participants will be watching incoming revenue trends, claims patterns and acquisition integration closely as determinants of Brown & Brown’s near-term performance and margin trajectory.