Mizuho adjusted its 12-month price target for Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) to $95.00 from $86.00 on Monday but maintained a Neutral rating on the coffee chain’s shares.
The timing of the revision comes just ahead of Starbucks’ investor day on January 29, 2026, where the company is expected to disclose targets for fiscal 2026 and longer-term performance goals.
In its note, Mizuho said it sees "little risk" to Starbucks’ first-quarter and fiscal 2026 same-store sales growth forecasts. The firm pointed to a cluster of factors that it expects will support sales, including the transfer of sales after unit closures, extended store operating hours, ongoing remodel programs, investments in the Green Apron concept, and favorable macroeconomic conditions such as tax policy.
Despite those sales tailwinds, Mizuho emphasized uncertainty around the company’s ability to expand margins in North America. The research team highlighted that margin outcomes hinge on several variables - coffee commodity costs, ongoing labor inflation, and the balance between recurring versus one-time investments - which it described as "multiple moving parts."
On the numbers Mizuho flagged that consensus projections for Starbucks’ North American margins look optimistic. Analyst estimates referenced by the firm show consensus at 14.7% for fiscal 2027 and 15.9% for fiscal 2028, versus 13.2% projected for fiscal 2026.
Separately, Starbucks declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.62 per share, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026.
Other brokerages and research houses have offered divergent views in recent days. BofA Securities increased its price target to $114 and retained a Buy rating, citing growth potential in China despite recent softness in same-store sales and ticket growth in that region. William Blair upgraded the stock to Outperform, anticipating that December would produce the first domestic comparable sales gain in two years and could set up positive full-year comparable sales growth for fiscal 2026.
By contrast, Jefferies reiterated an Underperform rating with a $75 price target, expressing skepticism about the stock’s recent rally and warning that upcoming events could disappoint.
Finally, the company’s performance could be affected by broader economic policy changes, as President Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order reducing tariffs on coffee and other commodities, a development the market may monitor for its potential impact on commodity costs.
Bottom line: Analysts are updating valuations and positions ahead of Starbucks’ investor day: sales momentum is viewed as likely stable, but margin expansion in North America remains uncertain because of costs and investment timing.