Mizuho has moved Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) out of a Neutral stance and into an Outperform rating, while keeping its price target steady at $6,000. At the current trading level of $4,644.64, that target represents approximately 30% upside.
Data from InvestingPro cited by the research note shows Booking trading beneath its Fair Value, with sell-side targets stretching between $5,300 and $7,656. The firm pointed to a recent market pullback that has left the shares down 16% since Mizuho began coverage, a decline that contrasts with gains and smaller losses among peers: Expedia gained 6%, Airbnb fell 1% and the NASDAQ rose 2% over the same interval.
Mizuho flagged underlying business metrics as a counterpoint to the share-price weakness. Over the last twelve months Booking posted revenue growth of 12.96% and maintained very strong gross profit margins of 86.99%. Those operating fundamentals, the note argues, weigh against fears that technological shifts will meaningfully erode Booking’s business.
The research house raised its 2027 earnings-per-share forecast for Booking by 4% and described market concerns that artificial intelligence will funnel more reservations directly to hotels as "overblown," particularly in relation to generative AI.
On valuation, Mizuho calculates that Booking is trading at 17.8 times consensus next-twelve-months price-to-earnings, which it says sits more than a full standard deviation below the company’s three-year average multiple of 20.6 times. Using its GAAP EPS estimate for 2027, the firm determined the stock is trading at 16 times that forecast, framing the current level as "another compelling opportunity" for investors who did not participate in the mid-November sell-off.
Recent company disclosures also lend context to the analyst view. Booking reported a strong third quarter, beating expectations on gross bookings, room nights and revenue. Management highlighted meaningful expansion in alternative accommodations and a lengthening of the booking window, particularly within the United States.
Other broker activity was mixed. Goldman Sachs trimmed its price target to $5,920 from $6,050 while keeping a Neutral rating. DA Davidson maintained a Buy rating and a higher $6,600 target, attributing part of its bullish stance to Booking’s partnerships with OpenAI and Google Gemini to power AI-driven travel features.
Separately, Booking announced leadership changes at its KAYAK business: Peer Bueller will serve as CEO while co-founder Steve Hafner moves to Executive Chair.
The note also referenced related industry developments. Navan expanded lodging options through an enhanced connection with Booking.com that improved its API integration for business travel. In a different partnership in the wider travel and hospitality ecosystem, SoundHound AI teamed with OpenTable to pilot an in-car voice reservations capability so drivers can book restaurants hands-free.
Context and takeaways
The cumulative picture Mizuho paints combines upgraded earnings expectations, a dismissal of certain AI risks, and a valuation that the firm sees as discounted relative to recent history. That combination underpins the move to Outperform while the $6,000 target remains unchanged.