Mizuho reduced its 12-month price target for Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) to $58.00 from $65.00 on Friday, while retaining an Outperform rating on the stock.
The firm described the change as a response to what it called a "clear shift in management’s tone" about the rural economy, and flagged a reemergence of promotional activity at the retailer - an element Mizuho said analysts had not heard explicitly referenced in years.
Mizuho highlighted remarks from Tractor Supply CFO Kurt Barton that suggested consumer fatigue weighed on discretionary categories in December, possibly linked to tariff-driven price increases. The company’s guidance for fiscal 2026 comparable sales was reiterated at a range of +1-3% and was broken down by the company to include about 100 basis points from inflation, 50-100 basis points from core business expansion and another 50-100 basis points from early initiatives.
The brokerage also pointed to quarter-to-date trends that it viewed as ahead of Tractor Supply’s internal plan for negative comparable-sales results in January, while noting that approximately 70% of the quarter remains ahead year-over-year.
Describing the developments as a "real reset to the TSCO story," Mizuho said the company’s outlook appears more difficult to forecast than in recent years, but added that increased uncertainty "does not mean it’s broken."
Tractor Supply’s own reported fourth-quarter 2025 results provided the backdrop for the analyst adjustments. The company posted earnings per share of $0.43, missing the consensus estimate of $0.47, and reported revenue of $3.9 billion versus expected revenue of $4.02 billion.
In the wake of that earnings shortfall, several research firms revised their price targets downward. Wolfe Research cut its target to $57, while noting mixed outlooks but also improved quarter-to-date trends; Wolfe said January sales are now expected in a +1-3% range for the full fiscal year. Telsey Advisory Group lowered its target to $63, attributing the change to disappointing fourth-quarter sales even as it recognized continued market-share gains within the retailer’s core segment. Evercore ISI trimmed its price target to $60 after the earnings miss, pointing to just 0.3% comparable-sales growth in the fourth quarter and citing weaker discretionary demand as well as the absence of storm-related sales as factors.
These analyst moves and company commentary illustrate ongoing adjustments in expectations for Tractor Supply amid changing rural demand dynamics and renewed promotional activity. While multiple firms pared targets, the assessments and guidance range reflect a mix of caution about discretionary categories and acknowledgement of specific drivers such as inflation, core expansion and early initiatives that the company expects to contribute to comparable-sales growth.
Investors and industry observers will be watching subsequent trading periods and company updates to see whether quarter-to-date trends hold and how management addresses promotional activity and the factors contributing to consumer fatigue in discretionary segments.