Mizuho has trimmed its price target on Roper Industries (ROP) to $365.00 from $419.00 and maintained an Underperform rating. The revised target sits close to Roper's most recent trading level of $369.27, down from a prior close of $408.67.
The analyst firm's decision reflects what it describes as mounting competitive risk associated with expanding AI adoption and usage - concerns that Mizuho says were not alleviated by Roper's latest results and outlook. The research note also identified additional pressure stemming from the extended government shutdown, which the firm says has had a material effect on Deltek, Roper's government-focused business that generates roughly $800 million in revenue.
Mizuho characterized part of the shutdown's impact as timing-related, but added that a larger share of the hit may represent permanently lost sales as customer budgets were reduced. That combination of factors has contributed to a notable pullback in the stock: Roper has declined about 33.7% over the past six months, and momentum indicators currently suggest the shares are in oversold territory, according to technical metrics cited by the research firm.
In addition to the price-target cut, Mizuho trimmed its 2027 earnings-per-share forecast slightly to $22.75 from $22.95. The firm attributed its lower valuation to both the modest reduction in EPS and ongoing multiple compression across its Software peer group.
Mizuho also noted that Roper's Neptune business is still undergoing a reset, and the company has lowered guidance for 2026 in that segment. Those dynamics, combined with the Deltek headwinds, were central to the firm's more cautious stance.
On the corporate side, Roper management reported having more than $6 billion of deployable capital and an active pipeline of opportunities. The company has expanded its plans to include share repurchases alongside other potential uses of capital and indicated an openness to acquisitions, saying there are numerous high-quality assets that could be considered. Roper has a longstanding dividend record, having paid dividends for 35 consecutive years and increased its dividend for 12 straight years.
Market reactions earlier this reporting cycle also influenced analyst sentiment. Roper's fourth-quarter 2025 results featured an earnings-per-share beat but a revenue shortfall, prompting a pre-market decline in the stock. Following those results, Stifel moved to downgrade Roper from Buy to Hold and cut its price objective from $550.00 to $385.00, citing organic revenue growth of 4% that trailed Wall Street's 5.5% expectation. Separately, Oppenheimer downgraded the name from Outperform to Perform and withdrew its price target, pointing to a weak outlook and persistent challenges in several business units.
Analysts have highlighted recurring trouble spots across the portfolio - including Deltek, Procare, DAT, and Neptune - which have pressured results in recent quarters and contributed to disappointing guidance for fiscal 2026. Investors are watching how management deploys capital and addresses operating issues as they reassess positions in the company.
As market participants process the mix of competitive concerns, segment resets, and capital-allocation plans, the recent wave of analyst revisions reflects both company-specific execution questions and broader valuation shifts within software peers. For Roper, the combination of government program timing, portfolio-level softness, and sector multiple contraction has translated into lower near-term expectations from the sell side.