Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

MercadoLibre to Increase Logistics Fees in Brazil, Reinforced by Itau BBA's Positive Outlook

Itau BBA maintains Outperform rating bolstered by anticipated EPS growth and revenue boost

By Leila Farooq MELI
MercadoLibre to Increase Logistics Fees in Brazil, Reinforced by Itau BBA's Positive Outlook
MELI

MercadoLibre plans to raise logistics fees in Brazil starting March 2026, a development that has prompted Itau BBA to reaffirm its Outperform rating on the stock. The fee adjustment is expected to enhance the company’s earnings per share by about 3% in 2026 and add roughly $280 million in annual net revenues. MercadoLibre's recent financial maneuvers include a successful $750 million bond issuance after upgrading to investment grade, highlighting its improving credit profile, despite recent workforce reductions linked to an AI expansion strategy.

Key Points

  • MercadoLibre will raise logistics fees in Brazil from March 2026, with the largest increases applied to mid-priced items weighing under 3kg.
  • Itau BBA continues to rate MercadoLibre as Outperform, with a price target of $285.00, citing an expected 3% EPS uplift in 2026 and an $280 million annual net revenue gain from the fee hike.
  • MercadoLibre completed a $750 million bond issue following its upgrade to investment-grade status, which was significantly oversubscribed and involved broad institutional participation.

MercadoLibre, a leading entity in the Broadline Retail sector with a market cap valued at approximately $109.19 billion, has confirmed plans to increase its logistics charges in Brazil beginning March 2026. This adjustment signals robust market positioning, according to Itau BBA's analyst Rodrigo Nistor, who sustained his Outperform rating on the company.

The analyst also set a price target of $285.00, referencing projections that these fee hikes could uplift MercadoLibre's earnings per share (EPS) by an estimated 3% in the 2026 fiscal year. Market data shows that currently, MercadoLibre shares trade close to their Fair Value, supported by a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 51.96.

Detailed plans indicate that products priced between R$49 and R$79 will bear the brunt of the increases, with logistics fees expected to climb by 14% to 21% for shipments weighing less than 3 kilograms. For items priced above the R$79 threshold, the fee adjustments are expected to be more restrained, with changes to lighter packages remaining beneath the inflation rate prevailing in Brazil.

Itau BBA's analysis predicts that these modifications will enhance MercadoLibre’s take rate in the Brazilian market by about 80 basis points in 2026. This boost corresponds to an extra $280 million in yearly net revenue, which equates to roughly a 3% impact excluding inflation effects, or 6% when considered in absolute terms.

This strategic fee revision follows a competitive period throughout 2025 when MercadoLibre had implemented freight cost reductions of up to 40% for products priced above R$79, while selectively increasing flat fees on items at lower price points.

Beyond the fee structure changes, MercadoLibre recently completed a notable $750 million bond offering at a 4.900% coupon, with maturities due in 2033. This marked the company’s inaugural debt issuance since its elevation to investment-grade status by Moody’s Ratings, which recognizes the firm’s enhancements in credit metrics and operational robustness. The bond issue garnered substantial interest, being oversubscribed by a factor of 3.6 and engaging over 150 institutional investors.

Despite these positive financial strides, MercadoLibre initiated a workforce reduction encompassing 119 employees, aimed at supporting its artificial intelligence growth trajectory; 38 of those layoffs occurred within Brazil.

In additional equity developments, Benchmark maintained a Buy rating for MercadoLibre but reduced its price target to $2,780 amid third-quarter results that surpassed expectations in areas including unique buyers, gross merchandise volume (GMV), total payment volume, and revenues across its commerce and fintech domains.

The funds generated from the bond issuance are slated for general corporate purposes, as well as to further reinforce the company’s liquidity standing.

Risks

  • Fee increases may impact consumer demand or competitive positioning within the Brazilian e-commerce market, particularly for products in the R$49-R$79 range, affecting logistics and retail sectors.
  • Recent layoffs as part of AI expansion may entail operational risks, especially in Brazil where some workforce reductions occurred.
  • Market valuation is currently near fair value with a high P/E ratio (~51.96), which could introduce volatility or limit upside potential in stock price.

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