Overview
Lucid Capital Markets has cut its rating on Quince Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: QNCX) from Buy to Sell and has reduced its price target to $0 following the company’s disclosure that its Phase 3 NEAT study did not achieve statistical significance. The downgrade coincided with a sharp market reaction: the stock fell 91.23% over the prior week, trading at $0.27 versus a previous close of $3.18, according to InvestingPro data.
Trial outcome and program discontinuation
Quince reported that its lead program, dexamethasone sodium phosphate encapsulated in autologous erythrocytes (eDSP), failed to meet the primary endpoint in the NEAT Phase 3 trial for patients with Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T). The trial did not achieve statistical significance on the Rescored modified International Cooperative Ataxia Rating Scale (RmICARS), the study’s primary clinical measure. The study also missed its key secondary endpoint, which evaluated change in Clinical Global Impression of Severity (CGI-S) from baseline to Month Six.
Following these results, Quince said it will discontinue development of eDSP. That program represented the company’s only asset in clinical development.
Financial position highlighted in downgrade
In explaining the downgrade, Lucid pointed to Quince’s financial situation. The analyst noted an estimate of $18 million in cash by December 2025, which roughly equals the company’s current portion of long-term debt at $17.5 million - a situation Lucid described as "indicating a zero value." InvestingPro data cited in the analyst commentary shows total debt of $17.99 million and an EBITDA of -$41.68 million over the last twelve months.
InvestingPro also rates Quince’s overall financial health as "WEAK," noting the company is "quickly burning through cash" and was "not profitable over the last twelve months." Those indicators were central to Lucid’s assessment that the company’s equity holds diminished value following the clinical failure and program termination.
Market and analyst reactions
The NEAT trial enrolled 105 participants and, with its failure to reach statistical significance, triggered a reassessment across the analyst community. D. Boral Capital downgraded Quince from Buy to Hold, while Citizens downgraded its view from Market Outperform to Market Perform. Citizens had previously maintained a Market Outperform rating with an $8.00 price target, a stance that the firm indicated had been influenced by unrelated positive results from another company, IntraBio, for a different treatment.
These rating changes reflect the direct effect that the unsuccessful NEAT study has had on investor expectations and the company’s strategic outlook.
Implications for strategy and capital markets
With the decision to cease development of eDSP, Quince is left without an active program in development. Combined with a balance sheet that industry observers characterize as constrained, the company faces practical questions about its ability to sustain operations, pursue new development programs, or attract acquisition interest without additional capital or alternative assets.
Conclusion
Quince Therapeutics’ failed Phase 3 NEAT trial and the subsequent discontinuation of its lead asset have materially changed the company’s outlook. Analyst downgrades and data points pointing to a weak financial position have contributed to a severe stock-price decline and a reassessment of the company’s value proposition by market participants.
Note: The facts in this report are drawn from company disclosures and cited InvestingPro data as presented in the underlying announcement.