Analyst Ratings February 4, 2026

Leerink Sticks with Outperform on Cencora, Flags Durable Growth Despite Near-Term Revenue Miss

Analyst lifts time frame for target multiple while holding a $410 price target as core metrics and AOI outperformance bolster conviction

By Leila Farooq COR
Leerink Sticks with Outperform on Cencora, Flags Durable Growth Despite Near-Term Revenue Miss
COR

Leerink affirmed an Outperform rating on Cencora (COR) and maintained a $410 price target, shifting its valuation basis from roughly 22.5x CY26 earnings to about 20x CY27 earnings. The firm pointed to a roughly 350 basis point beat on U.S. Healthcare AOI, robust revenue growth and a strong one-year stock return as supporting evidence for continued premium valuation, even as the company reported a slight revenue shortfall against forecasts for Q1 FY2026.

Key Points

  • Leerink reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Cencora and retained a $410 price target, shifting the valuation reference from ~22.5x CY26 P/E to ~20x CY27 P/E.
  • The analyst highlighted an approximately 350 basis point beat on U.S. Healthcare AOI versus estimates, alongside 9.31% revenue growth and a 44.91% one-year stock price return.
  • Cencora reported Q1 FY2026 EPS of $4.08 (versus $4.04 expected) but missed revenue expectations with $85.9 billion versus $86.02 billion forecast; the revenue miss was noted as a concern.

Leerink has reiterated an Outperform rating on Cencora (COR) and left its price target at $410, while adjusting the valuation multiple that underpins that target. The firm moved the reference multiple from approximately 22.5x calendar-year 2026 earnings to roughly 20x calendar-year 2027 earnings, keeping the target closer to its analyst high of $440 and comfortably above the current trading level of $331.03 and its analyst low of $315.

The research team defended the stock's recent weakness and argued that the present risk/reward profile is "even more appealing" predicated on what it sees as ongoing core growth trajectories. Leerink highlighted a notable outperformance in U.S. Healthcare AOI, recording an approximately 350 basis point positive surprise versus the firm's estimates. That beat is cited alongside Cencora's reported revenue growth of 9.31% and a one-year price return of 44.91% as evidence supporting continued momentum.

In its commentary, Leerink described concerns about a slowing growth rate as "overdone." The firm noted that Cencora "still comfortably beat" expectations, possesses "numerous upside drivers for sustained momentum," and retains "a total enterprise growth opportunity that remains in the upper tier of HC Services peers." Based on that assessment, Leerink said the premium multiple the company has enjoyed remains justified and that nothing in the latest earnings release alters that view.

Leerink also addressed what it called "distributor vibe coding risk," characterizing it as "infinitesimally minimal," and concluded that the combination of "growth upside off a durable steady base" underpins its ongoing Outperform rating.

The analyst note also referenced a financial health metric from InvestingPro, which rates Cencora's overall financial health as "GREAT" with a score of 3.14. According to that same data set, four analysts have recently revised earnings estimates for the company upward, a detail Leerink cited in support of its constructive stance.


Separately, Cencora reported first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 that produced a narrow earnings-per-share beat and a slight revenue shortfall. The company posted EPS of $4.08, toppling consensus forecasts of $4.04, while revenue came in at $85.9 billion versus an expected $86.02 billion. The EPS beat and revenue miss together were noted as material elements of the quarter; the revenue shortfall in particular was described as a point of investor concern. The stock experienced a pre-market decline in response to the release, though specific intraday moves are not the focus here.

Taken together, Leerink's note and the company-reported results paint a picture of a company that continues to show durable underlying growth and profit resilience, while also registering areas of near-term revenue pressure. Leerink's maintained conviction rests on AOI outperformance, a string of upward analyst revisions, and the view that enterprise-level growth opportunities keep Cencora in the upper echelon of health-care services peers.

Investors seeking additional detail can reference the InvestingPro research materials cited by Leerink, which include the platform's financial health scoring and analyst revision data for the company.

Risks

  • Near-term revenue weakness: Cencora's Q1 FY2026 revenue of $85.9 billion fell short of the $86.02 billion forecast, a development that has created investor concern in the healthcare and financial markets.
  • Market reaction to results: The company experienced a pre-market stock decline following the earnings release, illustrating sensitivity in equity markets to mixed results.
  • Perception of growth deceleration: Although Leerink described such concerns as "overdone," the existence of growth-deceleration worries remains an uncertainty for investors in health-care services and related market sectors.

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