Analyst Ratings February 4, 2026

Leerink Sticks With Outperform as Eli Lilly Posts Bullish 2026 Guidance

Robust revenue and EPS outlook, strong Q4 results and pipeline execution underpin analyst confidence

By Derek Hwang LLY
Leerink Sticks With Outperform as Eli Lilly Posts Bullish 2026 Guidance
LLY

Leerink Partners maintained an Outperform rating and $1,234 price target on Eli Lilly after the company issued 2026 guidance above consensus. The guidance, driven by continued strength in diabetes and weight-loss medicines, complements a solid fourth quarter and supports analyst optimism amid competitive dynamics in obesity treatments.

Key Points

  • Leerink Partners reiterated an Outperform rating and $1,234 price target on Eli Lilly after its 2026 guidance, which showed revenue and EPS midpoints above consensus.
  • Eli Lilly’s 2026 revenue midpoint is $81.5 billion (range $80-83 billion) and EPS midpoint is $34.25 (range $33.50-35.00); both exceed consensus estimates.
  • Strong Q4 2025 results—revenue $19.3 billion, adjusted EPS $7.54—were supported by higher-than-expected performance of Mounjaro and Zepbound, and management plans significant manufacturing investment.

Leerink Partners has reaffirmed an Outperform rating and left its price target at $1,234.00 for Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) following the pharmaceutical company's 2026 financial guidance, which the firm views as encouraging. Market data from InvestingPro places Eli Lilly near its Fair Value and notes a PEG ratio of 0.42, indicating the stock may be reasonably valued relative to projected growth.

Eli Lilly gave 2026 revenue guidance with a midpoint of $81.5 billion and a range of $80 billion to $83 billion - roughly 3.8% above the consensus figure of $78.5 billion. The company also provided adjusted earnings per share guidance with a midpoint of $34.25 and a range of $33.50 to $35.00, which is 2.9% ahead of consensus expectations. Those forward-looking figures come on the heels of substantial recent growth, with revenue rising 45.4% over the past twelve months.

The firm’s guidance arrived a day after competitor Novo Nordisk reported guidance that fell short of expectations on February 3. Leerink interprets Eli Lilly’s outlook as management expecting increases in obesity treatment volumes to counterbalance any pricing pressure. InvestingPro classifies Eli Lilly as a prominent Pharmaceuticals industry participant and assigns the company an overall financial health rating of GREAT.

Performance for the fourth quarter of 2025 contributed to the upbeat tone. Eli Lilly posted revenue that was 7% above consensus, operating income 13% above expectations, and earnings per share 9% higher than anticipated. Diabetes and weight-loss products Mounjaro and Zepbound notably outpaced estimates, beating U.S. consensus revenue forecasts by 12% and non-U.S. estimates by 6%.

These operational results have translated into substantial shareholder returns; Eli Lilly recorded a 31% price gain over the prior six months. The company’s reported gross profit margin of 83% and return on equity of 97% underscore strong underlying profitability metrics highlighted by analysts.

Leerink’s commentary also flags investor interest in forthcoming specifics around U.S. obesity treatment pricing and volume expectations, particularly in light of Most Favored Nation pricing considerations and Eli Lilly’s access agreement covering Medicare and Medicaid obesity treatments. Analysts are watching those developments closely for implications on both revenue trajectory and public-payer access.

Additional market reactions followed Eli Lilly’s fourth-quarter report. The company disclosed total revenue of $19.3 billion for the quarter, topping the consensus projection of $18.0 billion, and reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $7.54 versus an anticipated $6.91. In the wake of those results, Truist Securities reiterated a Buy rating on the stock.

Eli Lilly also announced capital investment plans tied to manufacturing capacity. The company intends to invest more than $3.5 billion in a new production facility in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania. That site will focus on next-generation weight-loss drugs and is expected to create 850 permanent jobs.

Several other brokerages maintained positive stances: UBS retained a Buy rating with a $1,250 price target while Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating with a $1,300 target. UBS highlighted potential near-term volatility tied to the outcome of a competitor’s upcoming study, a caution echoed by other analysts despite the broadly constructive view on Lilly’s fundamentals and strategy.


Context and implications

The consolidated picture from guidance, quarterly results, and analyst commentary points to continued momentum in Eli Lilly’s core therapeutic areas, particularly diabetes and obesity treatments. Investors and market participants will monitor pricing, volume trends, and payer access developments closely to gauge sustainability of the company’s growth profile.

Risks

  • Competitive environment and peer performance - A competing guidance shortfall from Novo Nordisk and the upcoming competitor study could introduce volatility for the sector and individual stocks.
  • Pricing and volume uncertainty - Details on U.S. obesity-treatment pricing and volume will influence revenue outcomes, with potential impacts on payer negotiations and access under Medicare/Medicaid agreements.
  • Execution and capital deployment risk - The planned $3.5 billion-plus investment in a new manufacturing facility must be executed as intended to support next-generation weight-loss medicines and expected job creation.

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