Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

KeyBanc trims Applied Industrial Technologies price target, cites LIFO costs and uneven demand

Analyst keeps Overweight rating while lowering estimates after mixed fiscal Q2 results and softer EBITDA margin guidance

By Sofia Navarro AIT
KeyBanc trims Applied Industrial Technologies price target, cites LIFO costs and uneven demand
AIT

KeyBanc cut its 12-month price objective for Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) to $300 from $310 but left an Overweight rating intact after the distributor reported mixed fiscal second-quarter results and offered weaker EBITDA margin guidance. The bank pointed to elevated LIFO expense and inconsistent December demand as drivers of the market reaction, even as the company posted an earnings-per-share beat for the quarter.

Key Points

  • KeyBanc lowered its 12-month price target on Applied Industrial Technologies to $300 from $310 but retained an Overweight rating.
  • The firm cited mixed fiscal Q2 results, weaker EBITDA margin guidance, higher LIFO expense and choppy December demand as drivers of the stock's recent weakness.
  • Potential positive catalysts for the second half of fiscal 2026 include stronger order trends in Engineered Solutions (Automation orders up 20% year-over-year), further price increases and possible M&A activity.

Overview

KeyBanc reduced its price target on Applied Industrial Technologies (NYSE: AIT) to $300.00 from $310.00 on Wednesday while continuing to rate the industrial equipment distributor as Overweight. The firm made the adjustment following what it described as "mixed" fiscal second-quarter results and weaker than expected EBITDA margin guidance from the company.

Valuation and market moves

InvestingPro data cited in the review shows Applied Industrial trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 and carrying a PEG ratio of 3.89, suggesting valuation is high relative to near-term earnings growth expectations. KeyBanc linked part of the stock’s recent underperformance to the company’s quarterly update; InvestingPro data confirms the share price fell 7.63% over the past week despite the company maintaining a financial health rating of "GREAT."

Drivers identified by KeyBanc

In its note, KeyBanc highlighted higher LIFO - Last-In-First-Out - expense recorded in the quarter and choppy demand patterns in December as the principal factors prompting the negative investor response to the earnings report. The bank also observed that buy-side expectations may have been elevated ahead of the release, amplifying the market reaction.

Estimates and retained conviction

While KeyBanc lowered its estimates to align with Applied Industrial’s updated guidance, it did not change its Overweight recommendation. The firm flagged several possible upside catalysts for the second half of fiscal 2026 that could support the stock: improving order trends in the Engineered Solutions segment - where Automation orders rose 20% year-over-year - the potential for additional price increases, and the prospect of merger and acquisition activity.

Earnings detail and market reaction

Applied Industrial Technologies reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results that exceeded analyst forecasts, posting earnings per share of $2.51 versus the $2.49 expected by analysts. Despite the modest EPS beat, the company’s shares declined in pre-market trading, with market participants cited as concerned about rising expenses and mixed market conditions. These dynamics underscore the tension between headline earnings beats and the underlying expense and demand signals that investors are weighing.

Context and implications

The combination of an earnings upside with elevated costs and uneven demand has produced a nuanced investor response: earnings exceeded estimates, but margin guidance and higher inventory-related expense have weighed on sentiment. KeyBanc’s adjustment of the price target and estimates reflects that trade-off, while its maintained Overweight rating signals continued belief in potential upside catalysts later in fiscal 2026.


No disclosure was included in the article body.

Risks

  • Rising LIFO expense and other rising costs could continue to pressure margins and investor sentiment - this principally affects industrial distributors and companies with significant inventory.
  • Choppy demand trends, such as inconsistent December orders, may lead to continued revenue volatility for equipment distributors and related supply-chain providers.
  • Elevated buy-side expectations heading into earnings releases can amplify negative market reactions if guidance or expense trends disappoint, impacting equity performance in the industrials sector.

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