Analyst Ratings January 29, 2026

KeyBanc Maintains Sector Weight on Lam Research After Robust Q2; Stock Seen As Richly Valued

Analyst holds neutral stance despite upside in earnings, upbeat guidance and multiple price-target increases from peer firms

By Avery Klein LRCX
KeyBanc Maintains Sector Weight on Lam Research After Robust Q2; Stock Seen As Richly Valued
LRCX

KeyBanc Capital Markets has kept a Sector Weight rating on Lam Research following the company’s second-quarter results. Lam reported earnings that beat expectations, issued above-consensus guidance, and signaled broad market growth into calendar year 2026. The stock, however, trades at a high valuation, with a market capitalization of $300.92 billion and a P/E ratio of 53.13, suggesting limited upside in the near term.

Key Points

  • Lam Research beat Q2 earnings expectations and issued guidance above consensus, supporting optimistic near-term revenue prospects.
  • The company expects all market segments to grow in calendar year 2026 and plans to outperform its own 23% WFE growth forecast for that year.
  • Shares have rallied strongly - up 221.72% over the past year and trading near the 52-week high - while valuation metrics (market cap $300.92B; P/E 53.13) suggest limited upside from current levels.

KeyBanc Capital Markets has reaffirmed its Sector Weight rating on Lam Research after the semiconductor equipment maker published its second-quarter results. The company beat expectations on the quarter and provided guidance that exceeds consensus, while management laid out an optimistic view for coming periods.

Lam Research is currently valued at $300.92 billion in market capitalization and is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 53.13, metrics that imply the stock may already be fully priced for near-term growth. Over the trailing twelve months the company has recorded 25.66% revenue growth, underscoring strong recent operating momentum.

Management told investors it expects all market segments to expand in calendar year 2026, and it projects performance that will top its own forecast for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) growth - the firm’s internal target of 23% for that category. Company executives also asserted they possess the strongest multiyear visibility in the firm’s history, indicating confidence in forward projections and medium-term demand assumptions.

KeyBanc commented that Lam Research is "exceptionally well positioned for evolving market conditions," but the bank emphasized that continued success depends on sustaining market demand, executing without material operational faults, and avoiding significant external disruptions. The analyst view therefore balances favorable competitive positioning with execution and macro-related risks.

The stock has been a standout over the last year, returning 221.72% and trading close to its 52-week high. That performance has been accompanied by a string of upward adjustments to sell-side price targets following the most recent quarter.

In company reporting for the December quarter, Lam delivered results that topped expectations and set a revenue outlook of $5.7 billion for the March quarter. That March-quarter revenue target represents a sequential increase of 7% and a year-over-year rise of 21% - a guidance beat of 7% versus analyst projections.

After those results, several firms moved higher on Lam Research. JPMorgan raised its price target to $300, citing operational effectiveness and resilient China revenue assumptions. Berenberg increased its target to $265, referencing positive guidance on WFE spending trends expected to reach $135 billion by 2026. Evercore ISI adjusted its target to $275 following the earnings beat and higher guidance, and RBC Capital set a new target of $290, pointing to a robust WFE environment and market share gains.

KeyBanc’s maintenance of a Sector Weight rating reflects a cautious neutrality: the firm recognizes Lam’s structural strengths and recent outperformance but notes that elevated valuation metrics and execution dependencies temper upside from current levels. Investors evaluating exposure to semiconductor equipment suppliers should weigh Lam’s operational momentum and favorable guidance against the premium multiple and the potential impacts of demand volatility or external disruptions.


Summary
KeyBanc kept its Sector Weight rating on Lam Research after Q2 results that beat expectations and guidance that topped consensus. The company forecasts broad market growth into 2026 and says it has its best-ever multiyear visibility. At a market cap of $300.92 billion and a P/E of 53.13, the stock may be fully valued despite strong recent returns.

Risks

  • Continued market demand is required for Lam to meet elevated guidance and justify current valuation - weakness in semiconductor capital spending would negatively affect equipment suppliers and related sectors.
  • Execution risk - flawless operational performance is necessary to convert strong bookings and guidance into delivered results; any execution issues would affect revenue recognition and investor confidence.
  • External disruptions - macroeconomic or geopolitical events could weigh on chipmakers' capital expenditure plans, impacting the semiconductor equipment sector and related supply chains.

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