Overview
KeyBanc Capital Markets on Wednesday reduced its price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill to $42.00 from $45.00, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. At the time referenced in the analysis, Chipotle was trading at $39.17 and carries a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.44 according to InvestingPro.
Quarterly performance that underpinned the update
The analyst action followed Chipotle’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial disclosure, which delivered same-store sales growth above expectations and reported store-level margins and adjusted earnings per share that exceeded consensus. Over the trailing twelve months, Chipotle recorded $11.93 billion in revenue and has been assigned a "GOOD" overall financial health score by InvestingPro.
Despite the beat, KeyBanc pointed to the company’s full-year same-store sales guidance as a constraining factor. The firm indicated the outlook for 2026 same-store sales came in below Street expectations, a primary reason for the downward revision to the price target.
Margins and earnings outlook
KeyBanc also highlighted Chipotle’s pricing stance as a source of potential margin pressure in the near term. That view prompted the firm to reduce its earnings-per-share estimates for 2026. The new $42.00 target equates to roughly 31 times KeyBanc’s 2027 EPS estimate of $1.34, and the firm said it maintained an Overweight recommendation because management’s stance may be conservative given the number of drivers for same-store sales it sees in place.
Details from the earnings release
Chipotle reported adjusted EPS of $0.25 for the fourth quarter of 2025, topping consensus forecasts. The company said that a $27 million benefit from gift card breakage analysis contributed to this result and helped lift restaurant-level margins by about 70 basis points. Nevertheless, management provided flat same-store sales guidance for 2026.
Analyst reactions and diverging targets
Market reactions among sell-side firms were mixed. Bernstein described Chipotle’s cautious same-store sales guidance as "prudent" but potentially disappointing for some investors. Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating and held a $46.00 price target, citing the company’s menu innovation. In contrast, Mizuho trimmed its target to $37.00, pointing to a weaker comparable-sales outlook. Barclays trimmed its target to $40.00, citing fundamental headwinds in sales and costs for 2026. BMO Capital set a $52.00 target, noting the company’s plans to reinvest margins.
Takeaway
KeyBanc’s adjustment narrows the gap between the firm’s valuation and the stock’s trading level by reducing the target to $42 while retaining a positive stance on the name. The move reflects the tension between near-term guidance and recent outperformance on key quarterly metrics, and sits amid a range of analyst views on Chipotle’s near-term comparable-sales and margin trajectory.