KeyBanc has raised its price objective for HCA Healthcare Inc to $550 from $500 while retaining an Overweight recommendation on the hospital operator's shares. The stock traded at $493.93 at the time of the report, after gaining 8.68% over the prior week and 55.05% over the past year.
The upgrade from KeyBanc follows what the research firm described as "very solid" fourth-quarter results from HCA. KeyBanc highlighted a 2% EBITDA beat driven by strong core operations and incremental upside tied to Medicaid Supplemental Directed Payments, commonly referred to as SDPs. HCA reported $15.49 billion in EBITDA for the most recent twelve-month period.
HCA's guidance for fiscal 2026 also factored into KeyBanc's decision. The company set a midpoint of $16 billion for 2026 EBITDA, above market expectations in the $15.6 to $15.7 billion range. KeyBanc attributed the stronger guidance to efficiency initiatives and continued momentum in underlying EBITDA growth.
The research note also pointed to potential additional upside if pending SDP approvals materialize, specifically calling out approvals in Florida as a source of further positive surprise. At the same time, KeyBanc acknowledged that HCA's valuation is elevated - roughly 10 times earnings - but said the company's fundamentals warrant an upward bias to estimates and supported the higher price target.
HCA's reported fourth-quarter 2025 results provided a mixed picture. The company posted earnings per share of $8.01, beating the consensus forecast of $7.45. Revenue for the quarter came in at $19.51 billion, slightly below the $19.67 billion consensus estimate.
In the wake of HCA's results, several other analyst firms adjusted their price targets:
- Goldman Sachs increased its target to $558, citing a 1.7% EBITDA beat and strong 2026 guidance.
- Truist Securities raised its target to $546, noting solid fourth-quarter results and fiscal 2026 guidance in line with expectations.
- BofA Securities lifted its target to $540, reflecting the growth projected in HCA’s 2026 guidance.
- Bernstein maintained its price target at $503 and emphasized that HCA’s margins continue to exceed expectations.
Taken together, these analyst moves reflect a generally optimistic tone toward HCA’s outlook despite the slight revenue shortfall in the quarter. KeyBanc and other firms highlighted the combination of margin performance, efficiency efforts and potential policy-driven payment upside as reasons for more constructive estimates.
Investors and market participants will likely watch the status of SDP approvals and HCA’s execution against its efficiency initiatives, as both are central to the upward case articulated by KeyBanc and peers. The elevated valuation relative to earnings also remains a factor that could influence positioning among institutional investors.
For now, the consensus among the cited analysts is broadly favorable, driven by stronger-than-expected EPS and guidance that outpaces prior market assumptions, even as revenue growth for the quarter slightly missed forecasts.