KeyBanc has maintained a Sector Weight recommendation on LyondellBasell Industries, following a quarter the research firm labeled "tough" for the chemicals producer. According to InvestingPro data, LYB shares are trading at $49 and the company has recorded a gross profit margin of 8.16% over the last twelve months, a figure KeyBanc cites as illustrative of ongoing operational strains.
The research note singled out several persistent issues. KeyBanc flagged weak operating performance in the Olefins and Polyolefins segment, concern about the company’s current dividend level - a yield the firm described as elevated - and uncertainty around the direction of MTBE spreads. InvestingPro corroborates the high yield, showing a dividend yield of 11.18%, and notes LyondellBasell has continued dividend payments for 15 consecutive years despite the recent operating difficulties.
Management commentary on China was viewed as a modestly positive datapoint. KeyBanc described management’s remarks on the anti-involution policy in China as "more encouraging" than prior updates, but the firm said it is waiting for "greater evidence of implementation" before treating those comments as materially supportive.
On cash generation, KeyBanc acknowledged a favorable development: the company produced healthy free cash flow during the quarter. Still, the research firm emphasized that this cash flow was "far from covering the dividend," reinforcing its caution around payout sustainability given the current earnings environment.
The broader backdrop remains a source of concern. KeyBanc pointed to a "challenging" cycle driven by global oversupply in the chemicals market, a dynamic that it said weighs on visibility and near-term earnings power.
In the company’s financial disclosure for the fourth quarter of 2025, LyondellBasell reported an earnings-per-share loss of $0.26, missing the consensus forecast of $0.20. Revenue came in at $7.09 billion, ahead of the $6.8 billion estimate and representing a 4.26% upside to expectations. The firm reported adjusted EBITDA of $417 million for the December quarter, down 40% year-over-year. That adjusted EBITDA was slightly above Mizuho’s estimate of $403 million but below the Bloomberg consensus figure of $478 million.
In response to the results and outlook, Mizuho raised its price target on the stock to $53 from $49 while maintaining a Neutral rating. That action underscores differing analyst reactions to the mixed signals in the quarter: revenue and some cash-flow metrics showed resilience, while margins, profitability and cycle dynamics remain pressured.
Overall, KeyBanc’s stance reflects a balance between isolated operational and cash-flow positives and broader structural headwinds. The firm’s retention of a Sector Weight rating signals measured skepticism that the recent signs of stabilization are sufficient to overcome persistent margin constraints and the strain of a high payout in an oversupplied market.