Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

KeyBanc Increases Intel Price Target to $65 Amid Foundry Business Optimism

Despite mixed guidance for early 2026, Intel's Q4 performance and future foundry potential underline an optimistic outlook from analysts

By Jordan Park INTC
KeyBanc Increases Intel Price Target to $65 Amid Foundry Business Optimism
INTC

Following Intel's robust fourth-quarter 2025 earnings driven by strong server CPU demand and a growing Data Center and AI segment, KeyBanc has raised its price target for the stock from $60 to $65. The semiconductor giant’s shares, trading near their 52-week high, reflect significant gains over the past year and half-year. However, the company projects first-quarter 2026 revenue and gross margins below expectations due to capacity constraints and ramp-up costs related to new manufacturing technology. KeyBanc maintains an Overweight rating largely based on prospects for Intel's foundry segment, notably a potential partnership with Apple on its advanced 18A process.

Key Points

  • KeyBanc elevates Intel’s price target to $65 from $60, maintaining an Overweight stance based on strong quarterly results and strategic growth opportunities.
  • Intel’s Data Center and AI segment grew 15% sequentially, driving overall strong demand in server CPUs and contributing significantly to stock price gains over the past year.
  • Upcoming foundry business, including potential Apple collaboration on advanced 18A technology, is a critical factor in the optimistic outlook despite early 2026 revenue and margin challenges.

On Friday, KeyBanc Capital Markets revised its price target for Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) upward from $60.00 to $65.00 while reaffirming an Overweight rating on the semiconductor manufacturer. This adjustment comes on the heels of Intel’s recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 financial results. Currently, Intel’s stock is quoted at approximately $54.32, hovering just below its 52-week high of $54.60. Despite these gains, the stock exhibits an unusually high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 1200, signaling significant overvaluation based on InvestingPro's fair value assessments.

The quarter’s results featured solid performance metrics, primarily bolstered by strong server CPU demand. Intel’s Data Center and AI division experienced a sequential growth of 15%, reflecting momentum in its key operational areas. These factors have contributed to an outstanding stock price appreciation of roughly 151.83% over the past twelve months and about 131.25% during the preceding six months.

Although the fourth-quarter earnings were favorable, Intel provided a cautious outlook for the first quarter of 2026, anticipating revenue and gross margin figures below analyst expectations. The company attributed this to peak capacity limitations and the initial operational phase of its 18A lithography process. This process ramp-up is expected to place downward pressure on gross margins in the short term.

KeyBanc’s positive stance hinges principally on the outlook for Intel’s foundry business segment. The firm highlighted the potential for Apple to become a client for Intel’s 18A manufacturing technology. Furthermore, Intel has indicated that customers’ decisions regarding its 14A foundry technology are projected in the latter half of 2026. Additional analysis available on InvestingPro covers over ten insights related to Intel’s financial health and competitive standing among more than 1,400 U.S. equities.

Intel anticipates an increase in production capacity throughout 2026, with expectations for growth exceeding typical seasonal patterns once early-quarter constraints subside. Complementing these statements, Intel’s fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.15 notably surpassed analyst estimates of $0.08, marking an 87.5% positive surprise. Revenue for the quarter reached $13.7 billion, also beating forecasts set at $13.41 billion. Despite these favorable results, Intel’s shares showed limited volatility in aftermarket trading but underscore the company’s resilient financial status in a highly competitive semiconductor landscape.

Risks

  • Intel projects lower first quarter 2026 revenue and gross margins due to capacity constraints and ramp-up costs related to the new 18A manufacturing process, which may limit near-term earnings growth.
  • The elevated P/E ratio signals that the stock may be overvalued compared to its fair value, introducing risk if market sentiment shifts or fundamentals weaken.
  • Dependency on successful adoption of advanced foundry processes like 14A and 18A by major customers is uncertain and could impact future revenue streams if delays or contract losses occur.

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