Analyst Ratings January 29, 2026

KeyBanc Holds Sector Weight on PPG, Sees Modest EPS Growth Ahead of Buybacks

Analyst flags roughly 4% organic EPS growth for 2026 while buybacks and early segment improvements offer upside under a cautious valuation view

By Caleb Monroe PPG
KeyBanc Holds Sector Weight on PPG, Sees Modest EPS Growth Ahead of Buybacks
PPG

KeyBanc Capital Markets kept its Sector Weight rating on PPG Industries, highlighting initial 2026 guidance that implies about 4% EPS growth before share buybacks amid a still challenging, relatively flat demand backdrop. Management buybacks, early signs of stabilization in refinish and general industrial end markets, and mixed fourth-quarter results have prompted a balance of optimism and caution among analysts.

Key Points

  • KeyBanc maintained a Sector Weight rating on PPG Industries, with analyst Aleksey Yefremov citing initial 2026 guidance that implies about 4% EPS growth before buybacks.
  • Management has been actively repurchasing shares, which could enhance EPS beyond the projected organic growth; PPG trades at a P/E of 15.94 and has a market cap of $25.57 billion.
  • Small encouraging signs in the refinish and general industrial segments suggest that the worst may be behind PPG, but valuation at 10.6x 2026 EV/EBITDA leads KeyBanc to prefer other chemical-sector opportunities.

KeyBanc Capital Markets maintained its Sector Weight rating on PPG Industries on Thursday in a research note authored by analyst Aleksey Yefremov. The firm pointed to PPG’s initial guidance for 2026 as indicating roughly 4% growth in earnings per share before accounting for share repurchases, and noted the company is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.94 with a market capitalization of $25.57 billion.

KeyBanc described the broader demand environment as "still challenging, relatively flat," yet emphasized that PPG’s early 2026 outlook appears to support modest EPS expansion even before the impact of buybacks. Data cited by InvestingPro shows management has been actively repurchasing shares, a dynamic that could lift per-share metrics above the firm’s roughly 4% organic growth projection.

While recent reported results did not demonstrate a clear inflection point to stronger earnings momentum, KeyBanc said they appear to form "a solid base for a modest 'up into the right' earnings story." The research note singled out small but encouraging signs within PPG’s refinish and general industrial segments, adding that "the worst is likely over" for those parts of the coatings business.

Despite observing what it called "relatively favorable risk/reward" for PPG shares, KeyBanc retained a neutral stance. The firm pointed to fair valuation metrics - specifically, 10.6x 2026 EV/EBITDA - and stated that "greater upside opportunities are available elsewhere in chemicals," which underpins their decision to keep a Sector Weight rating.

PPG’s most recent quarterly results were mixed. Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter came in at $1.51, shy of the $1.58 analyst estimate. Revenue for the quarter totaled $3.91 billion, beating the consensus forecast of $3.78 billion and rising 5% from the year-ago period. PPG said organic sales increased 3% year-over-year, driven by higher selling prices and volume growth across all regions.

Analysts have responded to the results with differing assessments. BofA Securities raised its price target for PPG to $118, citing the company’s supportive culture for organic growth. Mizuho lifted its price target to $125 while maintaining an Outperform rating, attributing the move to higher market multiples. Evercore ISI reiterated a $112 price target and pointed to auto refinish destocking as a potential headwind in 2026.

Together, these viewpoints underscore a mix of optimism about PPG’s near-term stabilization and caution around valuation and specific end-market pressures, leaving the company positioned for modest upside but not a clear breakout in analyst sentiment.

Risks

  • Persistently flat or challenging demand could limit organic earnings growth and pressure margins - a risk to industrials and chemicals sectors.
  • Auto refinish destocking represents a potential headwind in 2026 that could weigh on PPG’s refinish segment and related automotive suppliers.
  • Fair valuation relative to peers (10.6x 2026 EV/EBITDA) may constrain near-term share appreciation, suggesting investor returns could be limited compared with other chemical companies.

More from Analyst Ratings

Palantir Gains After Lofty 2026 Guidance; Analysts Split on Outlook Feb 2, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Starts Coverage of Nebius Group With Buy Rating, $108 Target Feb 2, 2026 Clear Street Starts Coverage on Caribou Biosciences with Buy Rating and $13 Target Feb 2, 2026 Goldman Keeps OLN Neutral at $22 as Olin Signals Rough Q1, Cost Cuts to Cushion Results Feb 2, 2026 Aletheia Capital Starts Coverage on Teradyne With Buy Rating, $400 Target Feb 2, 2026