KeyBanc has sharply reduced its price target for The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) to $40.00 from $88.00, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the advertising technology firm. The stock is currently quoted at $29.75 and has fallen nearly 75% over the past year, trading close to a 52-week low of $29.69 according to InvestingPro data.
The analyst firm said the cut in its target reflects a more cautious stance on future growth and a recalibration of the valuation multiples it applies. KeyBanc lowered its revenue estimates for The Trade Desk by 1% for 2026 and by 5% for 2027, citing a subdued view of spending on the open Internet. Those revenue adjustments have fed into reduced earnings forecasts, with KeyBanc trimming its 2026 EBITDA projection by 1% and its 2027 EBITDA projection by 6%.
KeyBanc’s revised $40 target is built on an 11.5x multiple of The Trade Desk’s projected 2027 EV/EBITDA, combining the lower financial outlook and the reduced valuation multiple applied by the firm.
Corporate developments at The Trade Desk have coincided with the analyst moves. The company named Tahnil Davis as Interim Chief Financial Officer after Alexander Kayyal unexpectedly departed the role after about five months. Management has reiterated its guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, forecasting revenue of at least $840 million and adjusted EBITDA near $375 million.
Other brokerages have also reworked their targets for the company while largely retaining positive ratings. Rosenblatt cut its price target to $53 and Truist Securities set theirs at $60, with both firms keeping Buy ratings. Stifel lowered its target to $74 and cited concerns about potentially "lackluster" guidance for the company’s first quarter.
Together, the analyst revisions and the CFO transition frame a period of recalibration for The Trade Desk. The stock’s steep decline over the past year and its proximity to the 52-week low are reflected in key valuation and forecast changes applied by several firms.
Key points
- KeyBanc cut its price target for The Trade Desk to $40 from $88 while keeping an Overweight rating.
- The firm trimmed 2026 revenue by 1% and 2027 revenue by 5%, with EBITDA forecasts down 1% for 2026 and 6% for 2027.
- The new valuation is based on an 11.5x multiple of projected 2027 EV/EBITDA; other analysts have also lowered targets but maintained Buy ratings.
Risks and uncertainties
- Slower-than-expected spending on the open Internet could pressure revenue in the digital advertising sector, affecting ad-tech firms and related equities.
- Changes in senior finance leadership create execution and reporting uncertainty for The Trade Desk during a period of adjusted analyst expectations.
- Downgrades to revenue and EBITDA forecasts drive valuation adjustments that may influence investor sentiment across technology and advertising stocks.
Bottom line
KeyBanc’s action narrows the valuation gap between its prior expectations and a more conservative outlook for The Trade Desk’s near-term growth and profitability. The company faces both operational and market-facing uncertainties as it moves forward with revised analyst assumptions and interim financial leadership.