KeyBanc Capital Markets has reduced its price target on Olin (NYSE:OLN) to $26.00 from $29.00 but continues to carry an Overweight recommendation on the shares. The move follows a sharp pullback in Olin stock, which fell 11.82% over the past week and is quoted at $20.81.
In its commentary, KeyBanc flagged a weak opening to 2026 for Olin's Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (CAPV) segment, calling the early-period earnings performance "disappointingly low." That observation aligns with consensus analyst projections shown in InvestingPro data, which indicate a forecasted negative earnings per share of $0.61 for fiscal year 2026.
KeyBanc attributed the profit shortfall to several specific operational and market factors. The firm cited a costly vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) turnaround as a material near-term drag, along with subdued ethylene dichloride (EDC) prices, elevated energy expenses, and the impact of stranded costs. Collectively, these items are central to the research firm's softer earnings outlook and informed its decision to lower the price target.
The research note also said KeyBanc found it challenging to reconcile the company’s first-quarter guidance with the list of headwinds it identified, and the analyst indicated a desire for "more clarity" from Olin management on near-term execution and cost trajectory.
Quarterly performance and cash position
Olin’s most recent reported quarter showed a larger earnings shortfall than expected, with fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share at -$0.75 versus a -$0.61 forecast. That downside surprise has weighed on investor sentiment even as the company generated $321 million in operating cash flow and held $1 billion in liquidity at the time of the report. Olin’s guidance for the forthcoming quarter has also been viewed negatively by the market.
Other analyst moves
In a separate update, RBC Capital reduced its price target on Olin to $21.00 from $24.00 and maintained a Sector Perform rating. RBC analyst Arun Viswanathan pointed to continuing weaknesses across several parts of the business, including chlorine-related issues that affected caustic production, ongoing destocking at Winchester, cost inflation pressures, and softness in Epoxy. Those factors were cited as drivers behind the downward adjustment.
Investor considerations
Together, the analyst revisions, the quarterly earnings miss, and the company’s operating disclosures underscore the near-term challenges facing Olin’s CAPV portfolio. While liquidity and operating cash flow provide some balance-sheet support, the specific mix of operational turnarounds, commodity-price sensitivity, and energy and stranded cost exposure continue to influence analyst earnings models and target-price decisions.
KeyBanc’s retained Overweight stance indicates the firm still sees upside relative to the current share price, but its reduced target and RBC’s lower valuation reflect an uptick in perceived near-term execution and market risks for segments tied to chlorine, VCM, EDC, and epoxy products.