KeyBanc Capital Markets lowered its 12-month price target on Meta Platforms Inc. to $835.00 from $875.00 on Monday, while preserving an Overweight recommendation on the social media company’s stock. At the revised target, the share goal remains substantially above Meta’s most recent trading level of $658.76 and falls in the middle of the analyst consensus range of $685 to $1,117.
In its note, KeyBanc said it expects Meta to benefit from product cycles tied to artificial intelligence beginning in 2026 and that the market has largely accounted for the company’s expected investment profile and returns. The firm highlighted Meta’s current valuation metrics, noting a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.29 and a PEG ratio of 4.12, and observed that Meta trades at its widest P/E discount to Alphabet since 2022, with roughly a 7x gap between the two companies.
On forecasts, KeyBanc’s revenue projections for Meta in 2026 and 2027 sit about 1% and 2% above consensus, respectively. The firm argued that product momentum that KeyBanc expects to materialize starting in the spring should help drive stronger revenue growth through 2027, even as investors remain focused on the company’s spending trajectory.
Near-term sentiment around Meta, the note said, is polarized by concerns over elevated spending. Some investors worry operating expenses could surpass $160 billion. In contrast, KeyBanc’s internal model forecasts $157 billion in operating expenses and $120 billion in capital expenditures. The research team signaled that these projected spending levels are compatible with the firm’s view that product-led revenue acceleration will offset some of the cost pressures going forward.
KeyBanc also pointed to Meta’s recent operating performance metrics as context for its view. Over the last twelve months the company has posted revenue growth of 21.27%, and its gross profit margin has been recorded at 82.01%. Those figures underpinned the firm’s conclusion that Meta retains the capacity to generate strong top-line performance even while carrying elevated investment levels.
Other sell-side analysts have offered varying takes as Meta prepares to report fourth-quarter results. Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating and set a price target of $875, expressing confidence that Meta can achieve Wall Street’s Q4 revenue estimate of $58.3 billion, which would equate to 21% year-over-year growth. Benchmark continued to advise caution with a Hold rating and urged market watchers to monitor potential cuts to the company’s Reality Labs business. Rothschild Redburn upgraded Meta to Buy from Neutral and flagged long-term value despite higher spending on AI; the firm increased its fiscal year 2026 total cost estimate to $158.6 billion, above the consensus. Raymond James trimmed its price target to $800 but maintained a Strong Buy rating, forecasting above-consensus revenue growth in the years ahead.
In an adjacent market development noted in research commentary, OpenAI is charging premium rates for its ChatGPT advertising placements, with pricing comparable to NFL video programs, though the company is offering limited performance metrics to advertisers.
KeyBanc’s action reflects a balance between concern over near-term spending and a constructive view on longer-term product-driven revenue. The firm’s estimates remain modestly above consensus for the medium term, and its maintained Overweight stance indicates confidence that Meta can navigate investor worry about operating expenses as AI-related product momentum takes hold in 2026 and beyond.