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Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

Kepler Cheuvreux Lowers Rating on TotalEnergies, Flags Risk of LNG Glut

Broker shifts TotalEnergies to Reduce and raises target to EUR52 as other firms update outlooks amid mixed operational signals

By Marcus Reed TTE
Kepler Cheuvreux Lowers Rating on TotalEnergies, Flags Risk of LNG Glut
TTE

Kepler Cheuvreux cut its rating on TotalEnergies SE from Hold to Reduce while nudging its price target up to EUR52.00. The broker cited expectations of a looming oil surplus and downside risks in LNG pricing, even as the company posts attractive valuation metrics and other analysts adjust their targets and ratings.

Key Points

  • Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded TotalEnergies from Hold to Reduce and raised its price target to EUR52.00 from EUR51.50; the stock is trading at $70.40 and is considered undervalued by InvestingPro Fair Value.
  • Kepler Cheuvreux forecasts LNG and TTF gas prices falling to USD7/mbtu by 2028, with potential downside to USD5/mbtu, and flagged TotalEnergies and Equinor as highly exposed to a severe LNG glut.
  • Other brokers took different views: Wolfe Research raised its target to $83 with an Outperform rating after noting upstream margin expansion and 5% y/y production growth, TD Cowen lifted its target to $70 but kept a Hold rating and adjusted Q4 2025 EPS to $1.66, and Bernstein named TotalEnergies an Outperform ESG pick for Q1 2026.

Kepler Cheuvreux has downgraded TotalEnergies SE (EPA:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) from Hold to Reduce and modestly lifted its price target to EUR52.00 from EUR51.50, the firm said on Tuesday. The analyst move comes despite the shares trading at $70.40 and an InvestingPro Fair Value assessment that lists the stock as undervalued.

The downgrade reflects Kepler Cheuvreux’s anticipation of an eventual oil supply surplus, a development the broker believes is inevitable even though geopolitical tensions and isolated production outages could temporarily prop up crude prices. In light of this outlook, the firm also removed TotalEnergies from its Sector Most Preferred list.

Kepler Cheuvreux highlighted pronounced downside risk in liquefied natural gas pricing, forecasting that LNG and TTF gas prices will fall to USD7 per million British thermal units by 2028. The research note adds that prices could potentially slide further to USD5/mbtu. The broker identified TotalEnergies and Equinor as among the companies most exposed to a deep LNG glut, while acknowledging the challenge of precisely modelling such a severe downside scenario.

At the same time, TotalEnergies displays valuation and income attributes that support investor interest. The company offers an 8.61% dividend yield and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.23, metrics that Kepler Cheuvreux’s downgrade does not change.

Other broker commentary on TotalEnergies was positive on select metrics. Wolfe Research raised its price target to $83 and maintained an Outperform rating after the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 trading update. Wolfe noted sustainable expansion in upstream margins and reported a 5% year-over-year increase in oil and gas production, helped by the return of the Ichthys LNG plant from maintenance.

TD Cowen also increased its price target to $70 but kept a Hold rating. TD Cowen adjusted its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings-per-share estimate to $1.66, citing lower LNG earnings and modest downgrades across several segments that were partly offset by stronger refining results.

Meanwhile, Bernstein selected TotalEnergies as one of its top ESG picks for the first quarter of 2026, awarding the company an Outperform rating based on its combination of sustainability credentials and financial upside potential. These analyst actions underscore differing perspectives on TotalEnergies’ near-term commodity exposure versus its longer-term operational and ESG positioning.

The divergence among brokers presents a mixed picture for investors: Kepler Cheuvreux’s bearish view is rooted in a forecasted supply-driven decline in oil and gas prices, while other analysts point to operational gains, production growth, and corporate strengths that support higher price targets and favorable ratings.

Note: The article summarizes analyst actions and company metrics reported in broker research notes and earnings-related commentary.

Risks

  • A projected oil supply glut could depress oil prices, affecting revenues and cash flow for energy producers - this impacts the broader energy sector and commodity markets.
  • Significant declines in LNG and TTF gas prices to USD7/mbtu by 2028, or down to USD5/mbtu in a more severe scenario, would expose companies with high LNG exposure to margin compression - particularly affecting LNG-heavy producers and related infrastructure players.
  • Modeling uncertainty around a severe LNG glut creates forecasting risk; the difficulty in precisely quantifying such an outcome increases volatility in analyst projections and investor expectations, which could influence energy and utilities sectors.

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