Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

KBW Trims D.R. Horton Price Target to $163, Cites Margin Pressure After Q1 Results

Analysts split on outlook after EPS beat as gross margins show strain and guidance points to ongoing affordability headwinds

By Ajmal Hussain DHI
KBW Trims D.R. Horton Price Target to $163, Cites Margin Pressure After Q1 Results
DHI

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut its price target on D.R. Horton to $163 from $168 while keeping a Market Perform rating following the homebuilder’s first-quarter results. The quarter showed modest order growth but weaker closings, a decline in trailing-year revenue, and margins that management expects will remain under pressure in the near term. Analysts’ reactions are mixed, with some raising targets and others lowering them amid concerns about margin trends.

Key Points

  • KBW lowered its D.R. Horton price target to $163 from $168 and kept a Market Perform rating.
  • Q1 showed orders up 2.6% year-over-year, closings down 6.5% year-over-year, and a trailing-12-month revenue decline of 8.62%.
  • Gross margin was 20.4% including a 40 basis point warranty benefit (20.0% excluding that item); company guided Q2 margins to 19.0%–19.5% and KBW projects 2026 margins of 19.25%–19.8% with improvement to 20.25% in 2027.

Overview

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reduced its price target on D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) to $163.00 from $168.00 and retained a Market Perform rating on the shares. The change came after the homebuilder released its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, which presented a mixed operational and financial picture.

Quarterly performance highlights

D.R. Horton reported first-quarter results showing orders rising 2.6% year-over-year while home closings fell 6.5% versus the same period a year earlier. Over the past twelve months the company’s revenue has declined by 8.62%, though the stock continues to trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.59.

The company posted a gross margin of 20.4% for the quarter, a figure that included a 40 basis point benefit from warranty items. Excluding that warranty benefit, the gross margin stood at 20.0%.

For the second quarter D.R. Horton guided gross margins to a range between 19.0% and 19.5%, noting affordability challenges within the housing market as a factor in its outlook.

Analyst margin projections and multi-year view

KBW adjusted its own forecast for D.R. Horton’s margins, projecting gross margins in the 19.25% to 19.8% range for the remainder of 2026, with an expected improvement to 20.25% in 2027.

Earnings and analyst reactions

On the earnings front, D.R. Horton reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share of $2.03, beating the consensus estimate of $1.93. Evercore ISI noted an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.06, which exceeded Evercore’s internal projection of $2.05.

Analysts responded unevenly to the results. UBS raised its price target for D.R. Horton to $193 and maintained a Buy rating while adjusting earnings forecasts for future years. Bank of America Securities lowered its price target to $158, explicitly citing margin concerns despite the earnings beat. Evercore ISI adjusted its price target to $169 and kept an "In Line" rating. These moves underscore divergent views among firms following the quarter.

What this means for investors and the sector

The company’s quarter combined an earnings beat with signs of revenue contraction and margin compression, yielding a nuanced outlook from the analyst community. Investors and market participants in the homebuilding and residential construction sectors are left weighing the impact of affordability headwinds and near-term margin pressure against the company’s earnings performance.


Summary

KBW cut its price target to $163 while keeping a Market Perform rating after D.R. Horton posted a mixed first-quarter set of results: modest order growth, weaker closings, a decline in trailing-year revenue, and margin guidance that points to continued pressure. Analysts’ responses to the results were mixed, with several firms updating price targets and ratings in both directions.

Risks

  • Margin pressure - The company’s guidance and analyst commentary point to persistent margin compression, which directly impacts profitability in the homebuilding and residential construction sectors.
  • Declining sales revenue - A trailing-12-month revenue decline of 8.62% signals reduced top-line momentum that could weigh on homebuilder valuations and investor returns in the housing market.
  • Analyst disagreement - Divergent price-target moves and ratings from major brokers create uncertainty for market sentiment, affecting investor confidence in the residential real estate and construction sectors.

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