Overview
JPMorgan has lowered its price target on Bullish to $42.00 from $45.00 and left its rating at Neutral as investors await the company's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, which are set for release on February 5. The stock was trading around $35.66, hovering just above a 52-week low of $34.24.
Earnings and model updates
Following an internal model update, JPMorgan now anticipates adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.15 for Bullish in the fourth quarter of 2025, along with adjusted EBITDA of $38 million. The bank described these revisions as marginal upgrades to its previous outlook.
Separately, data from InvestingPro indicates analysts expect Bullish to report a full-year EPS of $0.28 for FY2025, implying profitability for the year despite the company not being profitable over the last twelve months.
Revenue drivers and market dynamics
JPMorgan raised its estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted transaction revenue to $38 million - a figure that reflects a 43% sequential increase but still represents a 7% decline compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The firm's projection for software, services and other revenue remained unchanged at $52 million.
Despite a roughly 20% drop in the crypto market during the fourth quarter of 2025, JPMorgan noted that higher volatility supported trading activity on Bullish's platform. The bank estimates the company captured an additional 201 basis points of spot market share during the quarter, lifting its share to an estimated 4.9% of the industry’s total spot average daily volume.
Valuation and balance sheet considerations
The reduction in the December 2026 price target to $42 stems from JPMorgan's adjustments to its sum-of-the-parts valuation and a reappraisal that explicitly accounted for cash on Bullish's balance sheet. The stock has experienced notable weakness, falling 47.56% over the past six months.
InvestingPro analysis, as cited in the firm's reporting, indicates that Bullish is presently trading above its Fair Value assessment. At the same time, the company appears to maintain strong liquidity, with current assets substantially exceeding short-term obligations.
Operational snapshot and corporate moves
Bullish reported November 2025 trading volume of $80.8 billion, essentially flat versus October's $80.5 billion. Spot trading, and Bitcoin in particular, accounted for a substantial share of that activity - with Bitcoin trading representing $38.4 billion of November's total volume.
In a personnel move, Bullish named Jay Yarow as President of CoinDesk Insights. The hire leverages Yarow's editorial and digital media experience and is intended to support the digital asset media and events business within CoinDesk's operations.
Peer analyst updates
Other broker notes released recently show divergent price-target adjustments while generally avoiding revisions to underlying conviction. Rosenblatt trimmed its target to $52.00 from $55.00 but maintained a Buy rating, attributing the stock's recent underperformance more to investor concerns about an upcoming IPO lock-up expiry than to core business fundamentals. Canaccord Genuity revised its target to $50.00 from $68.00, citing the difficult conditions prevailing across cryptocurrency markets, though it acknowledged Bullish's work in diversifying and extending its business model.
What this means for markets
The updates underscore a few measurable themes: 1) volatility in crypto markets can lift trading volumes and transaction revenue even when asset prices are lower; 2) model and valuation adjustments that explicitly factor in balance-sheet cash can materially change target prices; and 3) liquidity metrics remain a critical lens for assessing short-term resilience, particularly for companies operating in high-turnover, volatility-driven segments.
Note: This article presents the analysts' forecasts and company-reported metrics as stated in available analyst updates and data feeds. It does not introduce additional claims or projections beyond those items.