JPMorgan has kept a Neutral rating and a $100.00 price target on Roblox Corp. (NYSE:RBLX) in the wake of a pronounced drop in platform engagement recorded over the past weekend. The bank’s target implies some upside from Roblox’s recent trading level of $72.47, even as the share price has tumbled roughly 15.08% over the past week. InvestingPro data indicates the stock is trading close to its Fair Value estimate.
The platform’s peak concurrent users - CCUs - slid to 23 million on Saturday, down from 26 million the prior week. That Saturday figure represents the lowest peak seen since early June. Within the shift in activity, certain individual experiences diverged: "Escape Tsunami" expanded to about 5 million CCUs from previous levels of 3 to 4 million, while "Steal a Brainrot" contracted by roughly 3 million CCUs.
JPMorgan highlighted that engagement over weekdays has been relatively stable, and suggested the weekend decline may be linked to a quieter event calendar on weekends rather than the company’s age verification measures. On a year-over-year basis, engagement moderated to 71% for January-to-date, down from 74% the prior week and from 91% in December. Despite these engagement swings, Roblox has sustained revenue growth of 32.7% over the trailing twelve months.
Other notable experience-level trends on the platform were mixed. "99 Nights in the Forest" held steady with peak CCUs near 6 million, while "Grow a Garden" declined to about 433,000 from 464,000 and dropped out of the platform’s regular top 10 rankings.
Operationally, JPMorgan assessed that Winter Storm Fern likely had a limited net effect on Saturday’s usage numbers: although having children at home could boost engagement, that potential upside was largely offset by power outages that affected hundreds of thousands of homes.
Separate reporting has tracked a broader decline in user metrics. Wolfe reported a roughly 10.6% weekly fall in concurrent users, bringing total CCUs to about 22.8 million. The first-quarter average for concurrent users is now cited at 16.9 million, with year-over-year growth slowing to 71%.
Analyst opinions remain split across the brokerage community. Oppenheimer continues to rate Roblox Outperform with a $150 price target, signaling a view that the company’s recent age verification rollout has not materially hurt monetization or engagement. Jefferies trimmed its price target to $85 and kept a Hold rating, citing concerns about growth expectations for 2026. BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating with a $155 target, pointing to the emergence of a new game on the platform. Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $107 as it moderated 2026 growth forecasts, now projecting 21% year-over-year growth in bookings for 2026, a figure the firm says is more in line with consensus.
The range of price targets and ratings - from Jefferies’s $85 to BMO Capital’s $155 - underscores a mixed analyst outlook for Roblox’s near-term trajectory. While JPMorgan’s Neutral stance reflects caution after the weekend engagement drop, other firms view the platform’s trends and content development differently.
Overall, the data point to a platform experiencing variability at the weekly and game-specific level, while still generating healthy revenue growth. The divergent analyst views and shifts in user metrics create a nuanced backdrop for investors weighing Roblox’s valuation and growth assumptions.