JPMorgan has reiterated a Neutral rating and maintained an $18.00 price target on Sarepta Therapeutics after the company published topline three-year data from the Phase 3 EMBARK study of its gene therapy Elevidys in ambulatory patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
The price target sits below the recent share price of $22.80, and analyst-level projections for the stock vary substantially, with target estimates reported in the market ranging from as low as $5 to as high as $45.
The three-year EMBARK topline showed statistically significant and durable efficacy across the study’s key motor function endpoints when compared with a pre-specified propensity-weighted untreated external control cohort. Elevidys-treated patients demonstrated sustained improvements on the North Star Ambulatory Assessment - with a reported p-value of 0.0002 - and statistically meaningful benefits on other motor measures; the summary provided did not specify a p-value for the Time to Rise endpoint.
In magnitude terms, the treated cohort experienced roughly a 73% slowing of disease progression as measured by Time to Rise and about a 70% slowing when assessed by the 10-meter walk/run, relative to the external control group. The mean age of patients at the final assessment was reported to be 9 years.
On safety, the three-year update noted no new treatment-related serious adverse events among Elevidys recipients. JPMorgan underscored, however, that for this class of therapy safety signals would typically emerge shortly after dosing, implying the absence of late-arising treatment-related serious events to date.
Despite the positive long-term clinical readout, JPMorgan said it is retaining a Neutral view on Sarepta. The firm emphasized the need for additional clarity on how Elevidys will perform commercially - specifically how the product launch curve will unfold - before it would revise its stance. JPMorgan also flagged upcoming pipeline catalysts as potential drivers of a narrative shift, pointing to planned readouts for SRP-1001 in facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) and SRP-1003 in myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), both expected in the first quarter of 2026.
Financially, Sarepta reported revenue growth of 47% over the past twelve months, with sales reaching $2.4 billion. That growth has coincided with negative free cash flow of $381 million, indicating ongoing cash burn. The company’s share price has recovered by 91% over the past six months, though it remains approximately 80% below its 52-week high of $120.05. Independent fair value modeling included in market data suggests Sarepta may be undervalued at current levels, though views among analysts remain heterogeneous.
Other broker reactions to the EMBARK three-year results were mixed. Baird increased its price target to $22 while maintaining a Neutral rating. RBC Capital reiterated a Sector Perform rating with an $18 price target and highlighted concerns about a decelerating growth trajectory for Sarepta’s Duchenne franchise, noting that an initial patient backlog has been largely addressed and that future utilization may be constrained primarily to newly diagnosed patients.
Sarepta has planned a more detailed presentation of the three-year EMBARK data on January 26, 2026, during a webcast and conference call. That presentation is set to cover topline results from Part 1 of the Phase 3 study, which focused on young ambulatory individuals.
Summary takeaways below compile the clinical, commercial, and financial elements investors and market participants are parsing in response to Sarepta’s three-year EMBARK update.