JPMorgan notified investors it is downgrading SSAB AB from Overweight to Neutral and reduced its price target to SEK 71.00 from SEK 75.00. The change comes after a pronounced rally in SSAB shares that has materially narrowed the margin for the stock to outperform peers in the near term.
The shares are trading at $4.34, which is approximately 0.94% below their 52-week high of $4.60. The stock has seen a roughly 40% appreciation since the end of September, with a six-month return recorded at 40.23%. Over the last 12 months the share price has more than doubled, delivering a 101.88% gain.
Despite the downgrade, JPMorgan did not walk away from SSAB’s long-term investment thesis. The bank reiterated its favorable view on the company’s exposure to heavy and specialized steel products that supply infrastructure and defense markets, noting those end-markets underpin the firm’s strategic positioning.
Where JPMorgan differed was on the near-term relative performance outlook. The bank said it now sees less scope for SSAB to outperform carbon steel peers and stainless steel producers over the coming period.
JPMorgan specifically pointed to its forecast for narrower US plate steel spreads in 2026 - about $175 per ton versus roughly $265 per ton in 2025. The bank attributes the decline to a combination of flat forecasts for plate steel prices and upward pressure on scrap steel input costs, which together compress the spread between finished plate and raw material prices.
Separately, SSAB has outlined plans to increase the share of its premium product shipments. At its Capital Markets Day in Oxelösund the company said it intends to lift premium shipments from the current 55% to 65% by 2030 and to 75% by 2035. The company also disclosed a target of achieving an EBITDA of SEK 23 billion.
SSAB’s announcement did not include any merger or acquisition activity, and there were no analyst upgrades or downgrades tied to the company’s Capital Markets Day disclosures.
Context for investors - The downgrade reflects a recalibration of near-term upside potential after a strong share-price run and a view that margin dynamics in US plate markets will ease next year. The longer-term strategic priorities SSAB outlined remain intact and continue to support the firm’s positioning in specialized steel markets.