JPMorgan moved ONEOK Inc (NYSE: OKE) down one notch on Tuesday, shifting its recommendation from Overweight to Neutral and cutting its price target to $83.00 from $87.00. The firm attributed the reassessment to results that missed the companys EBITDA guidance and to increased uncertainty around ONEOKs growth trajectory.
According to JPMorgan, the companys recent quarterly disclosure provided limited detail about the sources of underperformance. Management trimmed its 2026 EBITDA outlook and appears to be tracking toward the low end of the 2025 guidance range, the bank said, prompting questions about the companys ability to execute on its diversification strategy through acquisitions.
JPMorgans downgrade reflects two central concerns: a softer macroeconomic backdrop affecting ONEOKs core operations and doubts about near-term performance of acquired assets that were expected to realize synergies through strategic combination. The firm stated that restoring investor confidence may require clearer guidance for 2026 accompanied by demonstrable execution against that guidance, along with stronger oil prices to back the economics of ONEOKs non-Permian liquids-rich drilling portfolio.
Market watchers will note that other brokerages have taken different stances. UBS retained a Buy rating with a $114 price target ahead of ONEOKs fourth-quarter 2025 results. UBS analyst Manav Gupta expects fourth-quarter EBITDA of $2,161 million, citing strength in the Natural Gas Pipelines segment among other factors. In contrast, Jefferies initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a $80.00 price target, projecting an adjusted EBITDA compound annual growth rate of roughly 3.7% from fiscal 2025 through 2030, a pace the firm says sits below the peer average.
ONEOK also announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.07 per share, which equates to an annualized payout of $4.28 per share. That dividend is scheduled to be paid to shareholders on February 13, 2026. In governance news, the company added two independent directors to its board: Mark A. McCollum and Precious Williams Owodunni, with both appointments effective January 23, 2026.
Investors assessing ONEOK will need to weigh the divergence in analyst views, the company's updated guidance trajectory and the macro factors cited by JPMorgan. The banks view underscores the importance of clearer forward guidance and execution in reversing recent sentiment, while UBS and Jefferies offer differing expectations on near- and medium-term EBITDA performance.
Contextual note: The elements noted above are drawn from the firms published analyst actions and the companys announcements; they summarize the positions and projections articulated by those parties.