JPMorgan has increased its price target on ExxonMobil (XOM) to $140.00 from $133.00 and maintained an Overweight rating after the oil major reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that outperformed expectations. At the time of the upgrade, shares were trading at $141.40, narrowly under their 52-week high of $142.34. Data from InvestingPro classifies ExxonMobil as fairly valued under its Fair Value model.
The company delivered an operational performance that topped JPMorgan's estimates on several fronts. Reported diluted earnings per share for the trailing twelve months were $6.70, implying a price-to-earnings multiple of 21.1. Fourth-quarter EPS came in at $1.71, above the $1.68 estimate. On revenue, ExxonMobil reported $82.31 billion for the quarter versus a $81.04 billion projection. JPMorgan noted that EPS exceeded its forecast by 7% and beat consensus by 3%.
Cash flow from operations before working-capital adjustments also outpaced JPMorgan's model by 11%, with part of the upside attributable to a lower-than-expected tax rate. The company's financial metrics have supported a long-standing shareholder return policy: InvestingPro records show ExxonMobil has raised its dividend for 43 consecutive years, and the current yield stands at 2.91%.
Operationally, ExxonMobil finished the remaining material projects slated for 2025 during the quarter. These included the Golden Pass liquefaction facility, the Proxxima capacity expansion and a recycling unit at Baytown. In total the company brought online 10 key projects in 2025. Management expects these additions to contribute approximately $3 billion of incremental earnings in the current year.
On production, upstream volumes reached 4.99 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBoe/d) in the fourth quarter, about 3% ahead of JPMorgan's forecast. That beat was driven by higher output in the Permian Basin, Guyana and Asia. Guyana's production was reported at 875 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d) in Q4, noted as 100 Mboe/d above nameplate capacity. Permian production averaged 1.8 MMBoe/d for the quarter, ahead of JPMorgan's model of 1.72 MMBoe/d; despite the stronger exit rate, ExxonMobil kept its 2026 Permian guidance flat relative to the Q4 2025 exit run-rate.
InvestingPro assigns ExxonMobil a financial health rating of "GOOD," citing a moderate leverage profile and cash flows sufficient to cover interest obligations. Even with the earnings and production beats, shares saw a dip in pre-market trading following the results, indicating a degree of investor caution.
Context for investors - The results combine near-term operational upside from recently completed projects with steady cash generation and a long record of dividend increases. JPMorgan's target upgrade reflects the firm's view of the earnings beat, project delivery and upstream production performance, while market pricing indicates investors are parsing valuation, forward guidance and macro factors.