Overview
JPMorgan has increased its 12-month price target for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) to $315 from $305 while maintaining an Overweight rating on the shares. The bank's revised target implies material upside from the stock's recent trade at $248.04, even as some valuation tools indicate the shares may be trading above their Fair Value.
Performance and financial health
Apple's financial profile remains strong by several measures. The company posts a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, signaling robust fundamentals. Over the last twelve months Apple delivered revenue growth of 6.43%, bringing trailing revenue to $416.16 billion, and maintained a gross profit margin of 46.91%.
Despite those strengths, Apple shares have lagged the broader market in the short term. Over the past two months the stock has fallen roughly 13%, while the S&P 500 Index has gained about 1% over the same window. JPMorgan and other analysts note this underperformance has occurred even as indicators point to healthy demand for the iPhone 17.
JPMorgan's expectations for iPhone and margins
JPMorgan projects iPhone unit and revenue performance that would outpace consensus. The firm forecasts iPhone revenues rising about 16%, a pace that could represent Apple's strongest iPhone revenue growth since September 2021. Alongside the top-line outlook, JPMorgan expects margin pressures from rising memory costs to be limited. The bank points to Apple's long-term supplier contracts and scale advantages as mitigating factors that should constrain the hit to gross margins.
Services outlook and near-term visibility
For the fiscal first quarter of 2026 JPMorgan models App Store revenue growth of approximately 7% year-over-year. That pace is softer than the firm's view of overall Services growth, which it places around 14%. JPMorgan emphasizes that Services expansion is not solely dependent on the App Store and that Apple has several levers to drive broader Services growth.
Investors should note Apple is scheduled to report quarterly results in just 3 days on January 29, an event that could provide additional clarity on product demand, services trends, and margin dynamics.
Valuation and rationale for the target change
The raise in Apple’s price target reflects JPMorgan's view that the company has greater earnings capacity and warrants a higher target multiple. The firm signals that the multiple is more closely aligned with peak multiples typically applied leading into important product cycles, with the iPhone 18 expected later this year. At present, Apple trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.28 and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 25.05, levels that reflect a premium valuation.
Broader analyst landscape and product developments
Analysts are expressing mixed views ahead of the earnings release. Jefferies has reduced its price target to $276.47, citing a slowdown in services revenue. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and set a $315 price target, pointing to underappreciated strength in iPhone 17 demand. KeyBanc retained a Sector Weight rating, reflecting a neutral stance amid what it calls a de-risked setup following year-to-date stock underperformance. UBS remains Neutral with a $280 price target and expects December 2025 unit sales for the iPhone 17 to exceed earlier estimates.
Separately, there are reports that Apple is working on a new wearable device with AI capabilities shaped like a pin, equipped with cameras, a speaker, microphones, and wireless charging. These product-development notes underscore the company's ongoing innovation while analysts weigh short-term service trends and hardware margins.
Valuation tools and additional research
While JPMorgan lifted its target, some valuation metrics suggest the current price may be above Fair Value. Research platforms that track valuation, financial health metrics, and analyst ProTips provide deeper breakdowns of Apple's multiple, its financial health score of 2.68 categorized as "GOOD," and a range of additional analytical notes used by institutional and retail investors.
Implications for investors
JPMorgan’s upgrade in target and retained Overweight rating signal the bank's confidence in both product cycle strength and limited margin erosion from memory-cost inflation. However, divergent analyst targets and the recent share-price weakness highlight near-term uncertainty. The upcoming January 29 earnings report will be an important data point for assessing whether iPhone demand and Services growth align with the optimistic scenarios posited by some firms.
Key facts at a glance
- JPMorgan price target: raised to $315 from $305; rating: Overweight.
- Current stock price referenced: $248.04.
- Piotroski Score: 9.
- Trailing twelve-month revenue growth: 6.43%; trailing revenue: $416.16 billion.
- Gross profit margin: 46.91%.
- JPMorgan iPhone revenue forecast: +16% (potentially the strongest since Sept 2021).
- Fiscal Q1 2026 App Store revenue projection: ~7% year-over-year; Services guidance: ~14%.
- Valuation multiples: P/E 33.28; EV/EBITDA 25.05.
- Upcoming earnings date: January 29 (in 3 days).