JPMorgan has moved Corteva Inc. (NYSE:CTVA) from an Overweight rating to Neutral while simultaneously increasing its price target to $77.00 from $75.00, according to a note from analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas.
The change in recommendation reflects a refreshed valuation approach. Zekauskas applied a sum-of-the-parts analysis that uses a 13.5x EBITDA multiple for Corteva’s Seed business and a 10x multiple for its Crop Chemical operation. That segmentation and the chosen multiples are central to the analyst’s revised view of the company’s intrinsic value.
JPMorgan also raised its consolidated EBITDA forecast for 2026 to $4.2 billion, up from a prior estimate of $4.15 billion. The bank attributed this increase to expectations of stronger operating profits from the Seed segment, a factor that supported the higher price target even as the overall rating was downgraded.
In its note, JPMorgan referenced historical trading norms for Monsanto - noting an approximate 13x EBITDA level with a typical range of 10x to 14x. The analyst quantified sensitivity around the Seed multiple, estimating that each full multiple point applied to Corteva’s Seed operation equates to roughly $4.50 per share of value.
The firm also flagged potential market concerns tied to crop planting patterns. Specifically, the nearly 99 million acres of corn planted in 2025 may signal a cyclically strong environment for Corteva, a dynamic some investors could view as important when assessing future earnings variability.
Separately, Corteva reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that included diluted earnings per share of $0.22, in line with analyst expectations. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.91 billion, however, missing the consensus figure of $4.24 billion. That shortfall in sales is a notable development for market participants tracking the company’s near-term performance.
JPMorgan noted that the earnings release did not trigger any immediate upgrades or downgrades among analysts, leaving visible coverage and ratings unchanged beyond JPMorgan’s action. The combination of the sum-of-the-parts revaluation, the adjusted 2026 EBITDA outlook, and the Q4 revenue miss offers investors additional data points to weigh as they evaluate Corteva’s operational momentum and valuation going forward.
Context for investors: The adjustment from JPMorgan underscores how changes in valuation methodology - particularly the assignment of discrete multiples to business segments - can produce divergent signals: a higher price objective yet a more conservative rating. Meanwhile, quarterly operating results that miss revenue expectations can reinforce investor scrutiny of execution and top-line resilience.