Analyst Ratings January 29, 2026

Jefferies Upholds Hold on Tesla, Keeps $300 Target Amid Mixed Signals

Firm highlights strong cash beat but flags vague guidance, high valuation and execution risks as analysts diverge on outlook

By Sofia Navarro TSLA
Jefferies Upholds Hold on Tesla, Keeps $300 Target Amid Mixed Signals
TSLA

Jefferies has reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla (TSLA) stock with a $300 price target, citing a strong cash and core auto margin beat but continued uncertainty around guidance and execution. The firm noted elevated valuation metrics and flagged potential missed launch milestones and funding questions despite a substantial cash balance. Other brokerages remain divided, with some reiterating Outperform calls and higher price targets, while others trim targets but keep Hold ratings.

Key Points

  • Jefferies reiterates a Hold rating on Tesla with a $300 price target, noting strong cash and core auto margin performance but overall uncertainty in guidance and execution.
  • Tesla reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.50 on revenue of $24.9 billion, both slightly above analyst expectations, but did not issue Q1 guidance; capex is targeted at about $20 billion for 2026 and beyond across six business units.
  • Valuation and liquidity metrics present a mixed picture - a very high P/E of 299.72 and a market cap of $1.43 trillion contrast with a $44 billion cash balance and a current ratio of 2.07; sectors affected include automotive manufacturing, electric vehicles, and technology investments tied to AI and software.

Jefferies has again rated Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as Hold and set a price target of $300.00, a level that corresponds closely with InvestingPro’s assessment of fair value and contrasts with Tesla’s trading price of $431.46, which InvestingPro identifies as overvalued at present.

In its commentary, Jefferies described Tesla’s most recent earnings conference call as "the most interesting in many quarters," pointing to what it called a "healthy beat on core auto margin and cash." Despite that beat in cash metrics, InvestingPro data show Tesla continues to report relatively weak gross profit margins of 17.01%.

The research note also emphasized that the company’s outlook remains "vague and low in numbers," with one of the few concrete disclosures being plans for roughly $20 billion in capital expenditures for 2026 and beyond. Those expenditures are expected to be allocated across six business units, according to Jefferies’ summary.

Valuation measures remain elevated. Jefferies highlighted Tesla’s current price-to-earnings ratio of 299.72, a figure that signals very high growth expectations even as the company faces recent revenue pressures. The firm warned that a string of missed product or program launch milestones could "undermine confidence in earnings." It added that while Tesla holds a large cash balance - noted at $44 billion - "funding may become a topic despite a $44bn cash pile."

Balance-sheet indicators in the InvestingPro data set provide some support for Tesla’s liquidity position: a current ratio of 2.07 reflects more cash and short-term assets than debt on the balance sheet.

Jefferies also commented on Tesla’s announced investment in xAI, suggesting that attainment of so-called supercompensation targets "may rely on Musk-related corporate deals." The note placed Tesla’s market capitalization at $1.43 trillion, underscoring the company’s prominent role in the automobile industry.


Recent earnings results supplied additional context for analysts. Tesla reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that beat consensus estimates, posting earnings per share of $0.50 versus forecasts of $0.45. Revenue for the quarter came in at $24.9 billion, slightly ahead of the $24.78 billion that analysts had expected. Tesla, however, did not provide guidance for the first quarter.

Analyst reactions have been mixed following the results and forward commentary. Baird reiterated an Outperform rating while underscoring the company’s substantial capital expenditure plans. RBC Capital maintained a $500 price target and drew attention to the planned increase in capex. By contrast, Truist Securities trimmed its price target slightly to $438, citing production changes, while keeping a Hold rating.

Jefferies’ continued Hold recommendation sits amid this spectrum of viewpoints, reflecting a balance between near-term operational upside in margins and cash performance and longer-term questions about execution, guidance clarity and the rationale behind major investments.

Investors and market participants are therefore confronted with a mix of signals: strong recent cash performance and an above-water current ratio on one hand, and high valuation metrics, low gross profit margins and uncertain guidance on the other. The company’s plan to increase capital spending to roughly $20 billion for 2026 and beyond - spread across six business units - remains a focal point for analysts assessing future returns and funding needs.

As conversations among brokerage houses continue to diverge - with some favoring Outperform calls and others maintaining Hold stances or adjusting price targets modestly - Jefferies’ reiteration of Hold and its $300 target signal that the firm sees limited near-term upside relative to current market pricing given the combination of valuation and execution risk.


Key takeaways from Jefferies’ assessment and recent analyst activity include elevated valuation, an emphasized capex program, and debate among brokers over the implications of recent results and future spending plans. Market participants will likely monitor execution on launches, the company’s capital-allocation path, and whether funding concerns surface despite the reported $44 billion in cash.

Risks

  • Execution risk from potential missed launch milestones - if product or program rollouts lag, this could "undermine confidence in earnings" and affect the automotive and manufacturing sectors.
  • Valuation pressure given an elevated P/E of 299.72 - high expectations embedded in the share price could lead to increased volatility in equities markets if growth disappoints.
  • Funding concerns despite large cash balances - Jefferies flagged that "funding may become a topic despite a $44bn cash pile," a risk that could influence capital markets and investor sentiment around corporate financing decisions.

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