Jefferies has lowered its 12-month price target for W.R. Berkley to $70 from $75 and retained a Hold rating on the insurance company’s shares. The revised target continues to imply some upside from the most recent share price of $66.88, and InvestingPro data included in analyst notes suggests the stock may still trade below its Fair Value assessment.
The adjustment follows the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 operating earnings per share of $1.13, which topped Jefferies’ forecast of $1.05 and matched consensus expectations. InvestingPro metrics highlighted a Piotroski Score of 9 for W.R. Berkley, a reading that points to robust financial health across several accounting and performance indicators.
Despite the EPS beat, Jefferies trimmed its own EPS estimates for the insurer by 2%. The firm attributed the reduction to a mix of factors explicitly cited in its research: higher tax rates, rising expense ratios and lower growth assumptions across both of W.R. Berkley’s business segments. Jefferies also signaled that the company’s quarterly messaging had become less clear, characterizing the overall tone as suggestive of emerging competitive pressures within the insurance market.
On loss-cost dynamics, Jefferies continues to model deterioration in underlying loss ratios for W.R. Berkley over the next two years. The research team described the company’s public indication that it needs fewer rate increases as "counterintuitive" in light of ongoing loss inflation observed in the broader insurance industry.
W.R. Berkley’s reported fourth-quarter 2025 results included several notable items. The company recorded EPS of $1.13, in line with analysts’ expectations, and posted revenue of $3.72 billion, materially above the forecasted $3.19 billion. That revenue beat represented a 16.61% surprise relative to the projection, underscoring the quarter’s top-line strength even as some margin and expense dynamics drew scrutiny.
Separately, BofA Securities moved its price target on W.R. Berkley to $66 from $69 while keeping a Neutral rating. That change followed an assessment in which the company’s earnings missed BofA’s forecast by a penny, although the reported EPS matched broader market expectations.
Collectively, these developments capture recent financial activity for W.R. Berkley and reflect differing analyst calibrations: solid revenue performance and a clean EPS print on one hand, and caution about near-term profitability drivers, competitive pressures and loss-cost trends on the other.
Key points
- Jefferies lowered its price target to $70 from $75 and kept a Hold rating, while noting potential upside from a $66.88 share price.
- W.R. Berkley reported Q4 2025 operating EPS of $1.13 and revenue of $3.72 billion, a 16.61% surprise versus the $3.19 billion projection.
- BofA Securities reduced its target to $66 from $69 and maintained a Neutral rating after results slightly missed its forecast by $0.01.
Risks and uncertainties
- Deteriorating underlying loss ratios over the next two years, as modeled by Jefferies, could pressure profitability - a key risk for the insurance sector and financial markets tied to underwriting performance.
- Higher tax rates, rising expense ratios and slower growth across both business segments were cited as reasons for Jefferies’ 2% EPS reduction, introducing uncertainty for near-term earnings visibility.
- Emerging competitive pressures, signaled by management tone and analyst read-throughs, may affect rate-setting and margins within the property-casualty insurance market.
These points reflect current analyst assessments and the company’s reported results; they do not introduce new projections beyond those detailed by the firms and W.R. Berkley in their respective disclosures.