Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

Jefferies Lifts CAE Price Target to $34 After U.S. Training-Center Traffic Review

Broker keeps Hold rating as fresh center-level data supports utilization and margin assumptions

By Leila Farooq CAE
Jefferies Lifts CAE Price Target to $34 After U.S. Training-Center Traffic Review
CAE

Jefferies has increased its 12-month price target on CAE Inc. to $34.00 from $30.00 while retaining a Hold rating. The move follows an analysis of foot traffic at a subset of CAE's U.S. civil training centers used as a proxy for simulator utilization. Jefferies' updated estimates point to slightly stronger EPS and margin outcomes versus consensus for fiscal third quarter 2026.

Key Points

  • Jefferies raised its CAE price target to $34.00 from $30.00 while keeping a Hold rating; the new target is close to CAE's recent price of $33.44 and its 52-week high of $34.24.
  • Foot-traffic analysis at nine U.S. civil training centers - covering an estimated 33% of CAE's >350 full-flight simulators - indicates October-December traffic rose 1% year-over-year, pointing to roughly 75% simulator utilization in fiscal Q3 2026.
  • Jefferies' model produces fiscal Q3 EPS of C$0.32, 2% civil revenue growth, and a 20.0% margin, each slightly ahead of consensus estimates and informing the adjusted price target. Sectors impacted include aviation training, aerospace services, and public markets focusing on aerospace suppliers.

Jefferies raised its price target on CAE Inc. to $34.00 from $30.00 and left the broker's rating at Hold. The revised target sits in close proximity to CAE's recent trading price of $33.44 and to the stock's 52-week high of $34.24.

According to InvestingPro data cited in the firm's review, CAE is trading near what the platform considers Fair Value, and the stock has delivered notable momentum, gaining more than 39% over the past year.


The adjustment in Jefferies' valuation followed a granular examination of foot traffic at CAE's U.S. training centers. Jefferies used this foot-traffic information as a proxy measure for simulator utilization across the company's broader network.

The dataset covers nine civil training facilities out of roughly 70 locations in CAE's network. Jefferies estimates that those nine facilities represent about 33% of the company's more than 350 full-flight simulators.

For the October-December three-month period, the civil sites in the sample reported traffic up 1% year-over-year. Jefferies interprets that result as consistent with simulator utilization of about 75% in fiscal third quarter 2026. That utilization rate aligns with Jefferies' existing forecasts but is down one percentage point from the prior-year period.

Using the center-level traffic as an input, Jefferies models a fiscal third quarter earnings per share of C$0.32, which is above the consensus estimate of C$0.30. The brokerage also projects 2% civil revenue growth for the quarter versus a 1% consensus, and it forecasts a 20.0% margin compared with a 19.3% consensus margin.


This update centers on operational signals derived from training-center activity and on Jefferies' resulting alignment of utilization, revenue, and margin expectations with its revised price target. The brokerage's Hold rating and the proximity of the target to current trading levels suggest a view that the stock is generally fairly valued under these assumptions.

Risks

  • Sample coverage limitation - the traffic dataset covers nine civil facilities out of about 70 locations, representing an estimated 33% of full-flight simulators, which may limit representativeness for the entire network - this affects assessments of simulator utilization.
  • Slight utilization decline - reported utilization is roughly 75% in fiscal third quarter 2026, a one percentage point drop from the prior year, creating potential downside to revenue and margin if the trend continues.
  • Estimative variance - Jefferies' EPS, revenue growth, and margin projections are modestly higher than consensus, so deviations from those assumptions could alter valuation and the broker's outlook; this creates near-term earnings and investor-valuation uncertainty.

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