Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

Jefferies Increases Price Forecast for Enphase Energy on Robust Storage Segment Performance

Analyst firms adjust outlooks amid shifts in microinverter shipments and new product launches

By Sofia Navarro ENPH
Jefferies Increases Price Forecast for Enphase Energy on Robust Storage Segment Performance
ENPH

Jefferies has elevated its price target for Enphase Energy shares to $37, driven by promising contributions from the company's storage hardware business, despite maintaining a Hold rating. The company is expected to exceed fourth-quarter EBITDA estimates partly due to storage hardware, with projections highlighting potential shipment declines in 2026 offset by forthcoming product innovations and favorable market conditions in Europe. Broader analyst revisions are also reshaping perceptions of the stock, accompanied by advancements in product manufacturing compliant with U.S. commercial solar standards.

Key Points

  • Jefferies raised Enphase Energy's price target to $37, projecting a 7% beat on Q4 EBITDA largely from its storage hardware segment.
  • The firm anticipates a significant 30% annual decline in microinverter shipments by 2026, offset by improved storage volume and new product launches in Europe.
  • Additional analyst upgrades include Goldman Sachs moving the stock to Buy with a $45 target and KeyBanc adjusting to Sector Weight, illustrating growing investor interest in Enphase's long-term prospects.

Investment firm Jefferies has revised upwards its price target for Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH), increasing it from $33.00 to $37.00, while retaining a Hold recommendation on the stock. This adjusted valuation remains below the stock’s current market trading price of $40.48. However, according to InvestingPro's analysis, Enphase may be undervalued as its Fair Value estimate surpasses present trading levels.

Jefferies anticipates that Enphase will outperform fourth-quarter EBITDA expectations by about 7%, an uplift credited in part to the performance of the company’s storage hardware (SH) segment. The firm foresees the storage hardware division as a positive factor in Enphase’s first-quarter guidance of $250 million and views it as accretive to the firm’s overall financial results.

Looking ahead, Jefferies presents a more cautious perspective on Enphase’s microinverter shipments, forecasting a 30% decline year over year by 2026, a projection considerably steeper than the prevailing consensus estimate of a 10% decrease. Despite this outlook, the anticipated drop may be partly mitigated by rising storage volumes anticipated from the latter half of 2026 onwards. This positive shift aligns with plans for the rollout of Enphase's fifth-generation products in Europe, specifically anticipating advantages in the Netherlands as net metering policies come to an end.

Additional analysis from other financial institutions offers a varied perspective on Enphase's trajectory. Goldman Sachs recently upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy, raising its price target to $45.00, highlighting a possible 29% upside. This upgrade builds upon a prior Neutral rating adjustment in December, which was informed by expectations of a revenue trough in early 2026. KeyBanc has also revised its stance, moving Enphase from Underweight to Sector Weight, citing minimal further downside after the stock's substantial underperformance in 2025.

On the product development front, Enphase Energy has announced the commencement of U.S.-based production for its IQ9N-3P Commercial Microinverter line, featuring gallium nitride technology. This advancement is geared to satisfy U.S. content mandates and regulatory compliance for commercial solar initiatives.

In related news from the sector, Raymond James has initiated coverage on First Solar, assigning a Market Perform rating and noting a relatively attractive risk/reward scenario, though the firm expressed some reservations about aligning fully with the majority-positive analyst consensus.

These developments underscore evolving dynamics within the renewable energy technology sector, reflecting shifts in product demand, regulatory environments, and financial market perceptions.

Risks

  • Projected 30% decline in microinverter shipments by 2026 could impact revenue, reflecting sector exposure to product demand changes.
  • Dependence on storage hardware growth to offset shipment declines introduces execution risk if volume improvements lag expectations.
  • Market underperformance in 2025 and revenue trough anticipated in early 2026 present potential downside risks for investors.

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