Guggenheim has increased its 12-month price target for Madison Square Garden Entertainment (NYSE: MSGE) to $74.00 from $70.00 and reiterated a Buy rating in the wake of the company’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings release. The revised target implies upside relative to the stock’s current trading level of $60.01, while consensus analyst targets cited in the report range from $51 to $71.
For the quarter, MSGE reported revenue of $459.9 million and adjusted operating income (AOI) of $190.4 million. Those results were effectively in line with Guggenheim’s forecasts of $457.1 million in revenue and $190.0 million in AOI.
The firm pointed to the Christmas Spectacular as a notable contributor to quarterly performance. The seasonal show ran 14 more performances than in the comparable period the prior year, and management reported mid-single-digit growth in per capita spending along with low-single-digit increases in per-show attendance.
Guggenheim provided forward AOI guidance that projects fiscal 2026 AOI of $245 million. The firm characterized this as roughly 14% growth when excluding $8 million in severance costs. For fiscal 2027, Guggenheim models AOI of $286 million, which it stated would represent a 13% increase over the adjusted 2026 figure.
In supporting its bullish stance, Guggenheim cited several qualitative and strategic factors: persistent secular tailwinds affecting the live-entertainment sector, MSGE’s portfolio of iconic New York assets, the company’s ongoing stock repurchase program, and potential opportunities tied to Penn Station. The analyst note also highlighted an upcoming catalyst for venue demand - a planned 30-show residency by Harry Styles at Madison Square Garden scheduled for August through October 2026 - as a contributor to future growth expectations.
On valuation and market metrics, MSGE’s market capitalization was reported at $2.09 billion with an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 20.8x. InvestingPro data referenced in the report indicated the stock is trading above the platform’s calculated Fair Value and has delivered a 71.5% total return over the prior 12 months. The InvestingPro assessment of the company’s financial profile rated overall financial health as "GREAT," singling out particularly strong price momentum scores.
Despite strong top-line performance, the company missed on earnings per share for the quarter. MSGE reported EPS of $1.94, below the $2.04 analysts had anticipated. Revenue, however, exceeded the expected $404.9 million, coming in at $459.9 million and representing 13% year-over-year growth. The combination of a revenue beat and an EPS shortfall produced a mixed set of results for the period.
Guggenheim’s updated valuation and forecasts reflect confidence in the demand environment for live entertainment and the company’s asset base, even as the short-term profitability metric (EPS) came in under expectations. The firm also points to buybacks and venue-related opportunities as supportive elements for shareholder value going forward.
Context for investors
- Price target raised to $74.00 from $70.00 with a maintained Buy rating.
- Quarterly revenue of $459.9 million and AOI of $190.4 million aligned with Guggenheim estimates.
- EPS of $1.94 missed the $2.04 expected, while revenue beat forecasts and grew 13% year-over-year.