Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

Guggenheim Lifts Erasca Target to $12 as RAS Programs and Financing Advance

Analyst increases price objective after clinical updates and a sizable financing; stock has surged but some valuation caution remains

By Sofia Navarro ERAS
Guggenheim Lifts Erasca Target to $12 as RAS Programs and Financing Advance
ERAS

Guggenheim has raised its price target on Erasca Inc. to $12.00 from $5.00 while keeping a Buy rating, citing progress on the company's pan-RAS and pan-KRAS inhibitor programs and recent financing activity. The shares have gained sharply over the past six months and trade near their 52-week high. The firm models a 30% probability-of-success-adjusted revenue stream for ERAS-0015 in second-line and beyond NSCLC and PDAC with an expected commercial launch in 2030. Erasca reports substantial year-end cash and securities on an unaudited basis and has completed a large public offering while announcing plans for an additional offering. Another analyst, H.C. Wainwright, also raised its target following clinical updates from the AURORAS-1 study.

Key Points

  • Guggenheim raised its Erasca price target to $12.00 from $5.00 and kept a Buy rating, citing clinical updates and recent financing.
  • Erasca reported preliminary unaudited year-end cash and securities of about $341.8 million and completed a $258.8 million public offering, with a planned additional $150 million offering and underwriter option.
  • Clinical timelines include initial Phase 1 monotherapy data for ERAS-0015 in H1 2026 and Phase 1 data for ERAS-4001 expected in H2 2026; Guggenheim models a potential commercial launch for ERAS-0015 in 2030 using a 30% probability-of-success adjustment.

Guggenheim has increased its price target for Erasca Inc. (NASDAQ: ERAS) to $12.00 from $5.00 and retained a Buy rating on the oncology-focused biopharmaceutical company. The adjustment follows recent clinical and financing developments for Erasca, and comes as the stock has shown substantial short-term appreciation.

Shares have climbed sharply, returning 452% over the past six months, and were trading at $9.61, close to a 52-week high of $10.67 at the time of the note. Guggenheim’s revised valuation incorporates forward-looking assumptions tied to the company’s investigational therapies.

Specifically, Guggenheim now includes revenue estimates for ERAS-0015 that are adjusted using a 30% probability-of-success factor. Those projections cover ERAS-0015 in second-line and beyond non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), with the firm modeling a potential commercial launch in 2030.

The price-target change reflects recent updates on two of Erasca’s clinical-stage programs - the pan-RAS inhibitor ERAS-0015 and the pan-KRAS inhibitor ERAS-4001 - together with the company’s announced financing activity.

On the clinical timeline, Erasca plans to present initial Phase 1 monotherapy data for ERAS-0015 in patients with RAS-mutant solid tumors in the first half of 2026. The company expects to initiate monotherapy expansion cohorts and combination dose-escalation cohorts in the second half of 2026. Guggenheim’s research note also indicates that Erasca is expected to present Phase 1 data for ERAS-4001 in the second half of 2026.

From a financial position perspective, Erasca reported preliminary year-end cash and securities of approximately $341.8 million as of December 31, 2025. That figure is based on unaudited information and management estimates and has not been reviewed by the company’s independent accounting firm. In addition, Erasca completed a $258.8 million public offering of common stock, selling 25,875,000 shares at $10.00 per share; that offering included the full exercise of underwriters’ options to purchase an additional 3,375,000 shares.

Separately, the company announced plans for a $150 million public stock offering, with a 30-day option for underwriters to acquire an additional $22.5 million of shares. Independent analyst commentary referenced in the note indicates Erasca operates with a moderate debt level and a strong current ratio of 10.45, a measure indicating that liquid assets comfortably exceed short-term obligations.

Market participants should note that valuation opinions are mixed. While Guggenheim raised its target and maintains a Buy rating, third-party analysis referenced in the research indicates the shares may be overvalued at current levels and that additional premium research insights are available to subscribers.

Separately, H.C. Wainwright moved its price target for Erasca to $15 from $11 and maintained a Buy rating after updates from the AURORAS-1 study of ERAS-0015. That study reported both confirmed and unconfirmed partial responses across multiple tumor types and RAS mutations, according to the research note cited by market analysts.


Overall, the analyst actions reflect a combination of encouraging clinical signals and a material strengthening of Erasca’s liquidity profile through recent offerings, while market commentary also highlights valuation considerations at current share prices.

Risks

  • Clinical and regulatory timelines are uncertain - key Phase 1 data for ERAS-0015 and ERAS-4001 are scheduled for 2026 but outcomes and subsequent development steps remain to be seen (impacts biotech and healthcare sectors).
  • Valuation concerns - third-party analysis indicates the stock may be overvalued at current levels despite price-target increases (impacts investors and capital markets).
  • Financial reporting limitations - the reported $341.8 million in cash and securities is based on unaudited information and management estimates and has not been reviewed by the independent accounting firm (impacts assessments of balance-sheet resilience).

More from Analyst Ratings

Palantir Gains After Lofty 2026 Guidance; Analysts Split on Outlook Feb 2, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Starts Coverage of Nebius Group With Buy Rating, $108 Target Feb 2, 2026 Clear Street Starts Coverage on Caribou Biosciences with Buy Rating and $13 Target Feb 2, 2026 Goldman Keeps OLN Neutral at $22 as Olin Signals Rough Q1, Cost Cuts to Cushion Results Feb 2, 2026 Aletheia Capital Starts Coverage on Teradyne With Buy Rating, $400 Target Feb 2, 2026