Guggenheim has reduced its price objective for DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ: DKNG) to $42.00 from $45.00, though the firm reiterated a Buy rating on the shares. At the time of the update the $42 target implies roughly a 39% upside from the current share price of $30.12, and InvestingPro data referenced by the firm indicates the stock is viewed as slightly undervalued on a Fair Value basis.
The firm raised its forecast for fourth-quarter 2025 revenue to $2.043 billion, up from a prior projection of $1.93 billion. Guggenheim also adjusted its fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA estimate higher, to $300 million from $227 million. Both revised figures sit just above the high end of DraftKings’ own guidance range for the period.
InvestingPro data cited in the update shows DraftKings recorded revenue growth of 18.5% over the last twelve months, and analysts tracked by that data expect sales to continue expanding into the current year. Guggenheim noted, however, that year-over-year comparisons are significantly affected by negative NFL outcomes in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the firm described the present promotional environment as rational.
Looking farther ahead, Guggenheim trimmed its 2026 EBITDA projection to $910 million from $998 million. The firm attributed the reduction to planned investments in prediction markets and to elevated marketing expenditures linked to the company’s commercial arrangements with NBCU and ESPN.
Despite the downward revision to 2026 EBITDA, Guggenheim pointed to continued healthy underlying consumer demand for DraftKings’ products. The firm referenced app engagement metrics that show robust trends and also highlighted that DraftKings has an active $2 billion share buyback program on the books.
The analyst note comes amid other recent developments and divergent analyst views. During the NFL Wild Card weekend DraftKings posted a notable decline in online sports betting revenue in New York, with gross gaming revenue down by approximately 40% versus the same period a year earlier, according to the New York State Gaming Commission.
Benchmark has maintained a Buy rating on DraftKings and set a $37.00 price target even as New York’s online sports betting market registered a revenue decline of 39.9% year-over-year in Week 19. Benchmark’s commentary also referenced a prior mixed performance in Week 18, when the overall handle fell 4.2% while revenue surged 94%, a pattern that nonetheless led Benchmark to reiterate its Buy stance.
Separately, Citizens has kept a Market Outperform rating on DraftKings with a $44.00 price target following Maine’s legalization of iGaming and iPoker, which the note identified as making Maine the ninth state to legalize those verticals.
These items together reflect a range of near-term volatility in sports betting revenue and differing analyst assessments of DraftKings’ near-term outlook, set against stronger engagement metrics and active capital return plans from the company.