Goldman Sachs reduces Blackstone price target
Goldman Sachs has lowered its price target on The Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX) to $158.00 from $166.00 while keeping a Neutral rating on the stock. The firm updated its forward-looking financial expectations for Blackstone and cited valuation considerations as central to the change.
Growth and margin projections
Goldman Sachs projects more than a 12% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in Blackstone’s base management fees for the 2025-2028 period. Over the same horizon, the firm anticipates a 16% CAGR in fee-related earnings (FRE). Despite signaling that operating expenses will be elevated in the near term, Goldman Sachs expects FRE margins to expand to in excess of 60% by 2028.
Updated distributable earnings per share outlook
The bank revised its distributable earnings per share estimates for Blackstone to $6.37 for 2026, $8.46 for 2027, and $9.22 for 2028. These figures are marginally lower than the prior forecasts of $6.45 for 2026, $8.62 for 2027, and $9.23 for 2028, reflecting adjustments to fee-related earnings assumptions.
Valuation considerations
Goldman Sachs notes that Blackstone is trading at roughly 20 times 2027 price-to-earnings on a net-of-stock-based-compensation basis, which the firm characterizes as a more digestible overall valuation in light of a cyclical boost to PRE estimates in 2027. The reduction in the price target was attributed largely to lower fee-related earnings, and Goldman Sachs observed that Blackstone’s implied FRE multiples remain toward the higher end of the range - about 28 times on 2027 earnings.
Quarterly results and external analyst response
In separate company reporting, Blackstone posted fourth-quarter 2025 results that exceeded analyst expectations. The firm reported earnings per share of $1.75 versus a consensus projection of $1.53, a 14.38% surprise. Revenue came in at $4.36 billion compared with an expected $3.68 billion, an 18.48% surprise.
Following the results, Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating on Blackstone and maintained a $195.00 price target. Citizens analyst Brian McKenna described Blackstone’s position as "compelling," indicating continued bullish sentiment from that analyst. Despite the stronger-than-expected quarterly results, Blackstone’s stock experienced a dip in pre-market trading followed by a modest recovery in premarket activity.
Takeaway
Goldman Sachs’ adjustment reflects a balance between projected fee growth and margin expansion on the one hand, and valuation and nearer-term FRE pressure on the other. The company’s latest quarterly performance and a separate analyst view provide additional context for market and investor assessments of Blackstone.