Evercore ISI affirmed an Outperform rating and a $65.00 price target on Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for January 29. The price objective implies roughly 19% upside from a recent share price of $54.69, even as market metrics show the stock trading above its assessed fair value.
The firm characterizes the upcoming quarterly results as likely to serve "more as a reset than a referendum on the model," noting that Tractor Supply shares have lagged peer performance year-to-date because consensus expectations remained elevated after a stronger performance in the summer months. Evercore expects comparable sales in the fourth quarter to rise by about 1.5%, below the Street estimate of 2.5%.
Evercore's lower near-term view is consistent with market activity showing a number of analysts trimming forecasts for the period. Specifically, 14 analysts have revised earnings estimates downward for the upcoming quarter, while the company trades at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 26.29 relative to near-term earnings growth.
The firm points to several headwinds that it believes will pressure near-term results. These include below-normal weather early in the quarter that weighed on seasonal demand, a housing market that is effectively frozen, weaker consumer confidence and a deceleration in animal feed inflation that reduces the potential for pricing-driven comparable sales gains. In response, Evercore adjusted its fourth-quarter earnings-per-share forecast to $0.45, a touch below the consensus of $0.46.
Despite these shorter-term pressures, Evercore continues to view the company positively over the longer horizon. The firm trimmed its comparable sales estimate for 2026 to 2.5%, slightly under the Street projection of 3.0%, and modeled 2026 earnings per share at $2.30 versus consensus at $2.31. Evercore notes that these figures align with management commentary that suggested comparable sales durability above roughly 2% and an inflection in operating margin.
Operationally, Tractor Supply has shown recent revenue momentum with a 12-month revenue increase of 4.26% and a five-year compound annual growth rate in revenue of 12%. Financially, the company holds a solid profile by several measures: cash flows are sufficient to cover interest obligations and leverage is characterized as moderate, supporting a positive overall financial health assessment.
From an investor return perspective, Tractor Supply yields 1.68% and has a 16-year history of consecutive dividend increases, traits that may appeal to income-oriented shareholders even amid near-term volatility. Evercore also highlights valuation context, pointing out that shares in the low $50s represent only about a 4% price-to-earnings premium to the broader market and that the stock sits near a five-year trough in relative valuation. The firm argues that risk-reward improves materially as investors look beyond fourth-quarter results.
Analyst and market moves ahead of the print have been mixed. Stephens reduced its price target to $53, citing concerns about fourth-quarter 2025 revenue growth being lower than previously expected. UBS trimmed its target to $57 and kept a Neutral rating ahead of the results, while DA Davidson reiterated a Buy rating with a $60 target despite reporting softer trends in select indicators.
On the operational front, Tractor Supply continues to expand its store footprint. The company opened its 2,400th location in Aiken, South Carolina, part of a plan to add 100 new stores by the end of 2026. The new unit includes a 3,000 square foot Garden Center and is the retailer's second presence in the immediate area.
The company has also been mentioned in political commentary. U.S. President Donald Trump publicly criticized the high cost of farming equipment, which affected shares of both Deere & Company and Tractor Supply. He pledged to reduce environmental regulations on machinery manufacturers, a policy stance that could influence firms linked to agricultural equipment and inputs.
Evercore's stance reflects a balancing act: trimming near-term sales and earnings assumptions in the face of identifiable headwinds while maintaining a constructive view of Tractor Supply's longer-term operating and financial durability. As the company reports fourth-quarter results, investors will be watching whether management's guidance and the quarter's drivers support a return to the more favorable expectations Evercore maintains beyond the immediate period.