TD Cowen on Tuesday lowered its 12-month price target for Alphatec Holdings (NASDAQ:ATEC) to $20.00 from $27.00, representing a 26% reduction from the firms prior valuation. The investment bank kept its Buy rating on the spine surgery technology company despite trimming the target, and noted that the new level remains above ATECs prevailing market price of $15.25. The stock has fallen 8.57% over the past week.
In explaining the move, TD Cowen pointed to valuation pressures around how large a premium investors should assign to a high-growth spine surgery name. The firm nevertheless continued to highlight the potential for multiple expansion if Alphatec sustains execution, calling its Buy thesis "straightforward." TD Cowen also said Alphatec has "current/emerging growth vectors not yet fully appreciated" in both near-term and longer-term market expectations, suggesting upside to prevailing estimates if those vectors materialize.
Several data points cited in analysts discussions support a mixed picture. Revenue momentum remains strong: over the last twelve months, ATECs top line rose by 27.11%. At the same time, valuation metrics show the stock trading at a high EBITDA multiple, and technical indicators indicate it is in oversold territory, which some investors might view as a more attractive entry point.
Recent company results and guidance
Alphatec released preliminary results for 2025 showing roughly 25% revenue growth to about $764 million. The company also provided guidance for 2026 with total revenue projected at $890 million, a 17% year-over-year increase. That projected growth rate is lower than Alphatecs historical pace, a source of investor concern, though the 2026 forecast slightly exceeds the current analyst consensus of $886.9 million.
Analyst expectations for profitability have moved into view as well: the consensus remains strongly bullish with an aggregate rating of 1.46, and analysts are penciling in profitability this fiscal year with an EPS forecast of $0.04.
Other broker views
Several other brokerage firms continued to express confidence in Alphatec following the preliminary results and forward guidance. Canaccord Genuity held its Buy rating and maintained a $25.00 price target, noting that Q4/25 revenue outperformed expectations by roughly 1.7%. Stifel reported that Alphatecs fourth-quarter growth decelerated but still exceeded historical averages. Freedom Capital Markets reiterated its Buy stance and a $25.00 price target, even as the stock fell sharply after the preliminary results and the companys 2026 outlook were released.
What investors are weighing
Investors and analysts are balancing clear revenue growth and slightly better-than-consensus guidance against elevated valuation metrics and a slowdown in the pace of growth relative to Alphatecs past performance. TD Cowens revised target reflects that tension: the firm trimmed its valuation but preserved upside relative to the current market price, contingent on continued company execution.
Key takeaways
- TD Cowen cut its Alphatec price target to $20.00 from $27.00 but left the Buy rating unchanged.
- Alphatec reported preliminary 2025 revenue of about $764 million (up 25%) and issued 2026 guidance of $890 million, a 17% increase year-over-year and slightly above analyst consensus.
- Despite strong revenue growth and optimistic analyst consensus toward profitability, valuation metrics and a decelerating growth rate have prompted questions about how much premium is justified for the stock.
Risks and uncertainties
- Valuation risk - The company trades at a high EBITDA multiple, which raises concern about paying a premium for growth if earnings or revenue growth slows.
- Growth deceleration - Alphatecs 2026 guidance implies a slower growth rate compared with historical levels, which may unsettle investors expecting continued higher expansion.
- Market reaction risk - The stock has recently declined and is technically in oversold territory; further volatility could follow as the market digests guidance and analyst revisions.
This report summarizes analyst actions, company preliminary results and market indicators without expressing an investment recommendation. It reflects published analyst targets, company-provided preliminary figures and aggregated analyst consensus figures.