Compass Point has cut its price target for Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) to $190, down from a previous $230, while continuing to maintain a Sell rating on the cryptocurrency exchange’s stock. The firm’s revised outlook is driven largely by expectations that Coinbase will underperform revenue forecasts in the fourth quarter by an estimated 4%. This projected shortfall is attributed to weaker results anticipated across both the trading and subscription & services segments.
The research firm specifically pointed to concerns over Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue stream, forecasting a decline in the first half of 2026. This trend could catch some investors off guard, particularly those who consider growth in subscription and service offerings a key positive factor in Coinbase’s investment thesis.
Currently, Coinbase trades at an estimated 30 times its EBITDA projected for 2026, a valuation that Compass Point compares to roughly 45 times annualized EBITDA based on first-quarter 2026 estimates. This multiple is notably higher than historic valuations of 15 to 20 times EBITDA observed during former downturns in the cryptocurrency market.
Adding to the uncertainties, Compass Point highlighted a lack of legislative progress related to the CLARITY Act, which remains stalled. The firm does not foresee any significant updates on this regulatory front before Coinbase announces its fourth-quarter results scheduled for February 12, 2026.
Meanwhile, other brokerage opinions paint a varied picture. Raymond James retains a Market Perform rating, citing questions about whether the recent momentum in revenue and EBITDA are sustainable given ongoing cryptocurrency market volatility. Rosenblatt has lowered its price target on Coinbase to $325 from $470 but keeps a Buy rating, noting a drop in trading volumes after a robust third quarter in 2025.
Operational challenges have also emerged. Coinbase recently warned of potential access restrictions for its users in the Philippines, advising those affected to attempt alternative network routes or access the platform via international sources. Separately, a former customer service employee was arrested in India for involvement in a security breach, where internal staff had been bribed to provide customer data. CEO Brian Armstrong acknowledged the cooperation of Indian authorities in investigating the matter.
On the product innovation side, Coinbase continues efforts to broaden its offerings, unveiling new features such as commission-free trading and customizable stablecoins. Mizuho has reaffirmed a Neutral rating on Coinbase with a $280 price target, reflecting a measured stance on the company’s expansion initiatives in the face of market challenges.
Key Points:
- Compass Point has lowered Coinbase’s price target to $190, with a focus on anticipated revenue misses in Q4 and shrinking stablecoin revenue in early 2026.
- Valuation multiples are elevated compared to historical downturns, implying potential vulnerability if earnings fail to meet expectations.
- Legislative stagnation regarding the CLARITY Act adds an additional layer of uncertainty ahead of upcoming earnings disclosures.
Risks and Uncertainties:
- The forecasted revenue shortfall and weak segment performance could pressure Coinbase’s financial results and stock valuation, impacting the digital asset exchange market sector.
- Regulatory delays related to cryptocurrency legislation may affect investor confidence and slow business developments within the fintech regulatory environment.
- Security vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the breach involving insider collusion, pose ongoing operational risks for Coinbase and similar platforms operating globally.