Compass Point updated its stance on Circle Internet Group, raising the stock's rating from Sell to Neutral while lowering the firm's price target to $60 from $75. The change comes as analysts note that the shares now appear to be trading primarily on crypto market beta rather than idiosyncratic company catalysts.
The research note highlighted a 0.66 correlation between Circle shares and Ethereum since the cryptocurrency market's October 10th deleveraging event. That link helps explain why Circle's stock has been pushed toward its 52-week low of $64, a sharp fall from its 52-week high of $298.99, and why Compass Point sees limited separation from broader crypto sentiment in the near term.
Compass Point said it expects Circle to continue to trade in line with cryptocurrency sentiment through the first half of 2026, with fewer company-specific drivers likely to de-correlate the stock from crypto prices. The firm pointed to the composition of USDC usage as a key factor in that outlook.
The note detailed that more than 40% of USDC supply is held in decentralized finance applications and that at least 35% resides on crypto exchanges. Taken together, those figures imply that over 75% of USDC outstanding is deployed in activities tied to speculative cryptocurrency cycles, according to Compass Point's assessment.
While the research firm acknowledged that Circle could ultimately develop revenue streams from less cyclical, non-speculative use cases, it cautioned that such a shift could take years to materially decouple the company’s top line from crypto market swings.
Other recent analyst moves and industry developments
Several other brokerages and market participants have revised their views on Circle in recent coverage. Mizuho upgraded the stock from Underperform to Neutral and set a price target of $77, citing growth in USDC usage on platforms such as Polymarket and a reassessment of prior concerns over distribution and competition.
Tiger Securities trimmed its price target to $85 from $100 while keeping a Hold rating ahead of Circle's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report. That adjustment came as average USDC circulation rose 12% quarter-over-quarter to $76.3 billion in Q4 2025.
H.C. Wainwright began coverage with a Neutral rating and an $85 price target, noting Circle’s strong position within the stablecoin market.
On the regulatory and policy front, the White House has scheduled meetings with banking and cryptocurrency industry executives, including representatives from Circle Internet Group, to discuss stalled crypto legislation. The discussions intend to address tensions between the banking sector and crypto industry, with a focus on stablecoin holdings.
Context and implications
Compass Point’s downgrade of its price target while raising the stock rating reflects a view that Circle’s valuation is now more aligned with current market fundamentals and broader crypto dynamics. Several analysts have adjusted their outlooks and targets in response to rising USDC circulation and evolving regulatory engagement, but the firms cited in coverage continue to view the company as tightly linked to crypto market cycles in the near term.